The presidential election in the United States is a process that goes beyond simple vote counting. Voters elect 538 members of the Electoral Collegewho ultimately chooses the president.
Most states follow a winner-take-all system, but a few divide their electoral votes proportionally.
The outcome often depends on swing states, and although early and mail-in voting are common, the official result is not finalized until Congress certifies electoral votes.
How is the winner of the American elections decided?
Sometimes a candidate wins despite losing the popular vote, and some states are more crucial than others to achieving victory.
This is how the United States elects its head of state.
Who are the main contenders for the 2024 race?
The Democratic Party has, American vice president Kamala Harris successful Joe Biden on July 21, at the top of the ranking. She turns 60 this month and chose Minnesota governor Tim Walz, 60, as running mate.
Former US President Donald Assetwho is running again at age 78, is the Republican Party candidate. Ohio Sen. JD Vance, 40, is his running mate.
Jill Stein is running for the Green Party, after running in 2012 and 2016, while Chase Oliver is the Libertarian Party candidate.
And, Robert Kennedy Jr.son of former attorney general and nephew of US president John F. Kennedysuspended his independent campaign and supported Trump.
The previous elections of Stein and 2020 Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins reflect the continued presence of third-party challengers, even if they do not yet pose a serious threat to two-party dominance in U.S. presidential elections.
There are many other candidates affiliated with other minor parties or running independently, but without access to the majority vote.
Electoral College
An American voter does not vote directly for the president. Instead, electors vote for electors in the Electoral College, a body that ultimately chooses the president.
There are 538 voters in total, representing 435 members of the Chamber of Deputies100 senators and 3 electors from Washington DC. The magic number for victory is 270 electoral votes – an absolute majority.
The distribution of electors in each state is proportional to its representation in Congress, so a larger state like California has more electors (55) than smaller states like North Dakota (3).
The candidate who wins the most votes in a state generally wins all of that state’s electoral votes, a system used in 48 states and Washington, DC. Maine and Nebraska, however, use a proportional system that can divide electoral votes based on district and state level results.
The 2020 census changed the distribution of voters by moving seats in the House of Representatives. For example, Texas gained two additional seats and now has 40 electoral votes, while states like California, New York and Michigan each lost one electoral vote. This redistribution reflects demographic changes and impacts the electoral weight of different states in the next elections.
Through this system, candidates can lose the popular vote and still win the presidency by securing key electoral votes, as demonstrated in the 2016 election, when Hillary Clinton received nearly 3 million more votes than Trump but lost in the electoral college.
In 2000, George W. Bush won the presidency with 271 electoral votes, while his opponent, Al Gore, won the popular vote by more than half a million.
Early voting and absentee ballots
Early voting and mail-in voting also play a critical role. Although the official election date is November 5, 2024, Americans have the choice of voting weeks in advance, by mail or through in-person early voting.
Early voting resumed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with mail-in ballots accounting for 42% of total votes cast, according to the MIT Election Data + Science Lab. A total of 158 million votes were cast in the 2020 election, with mail-in voting reaching a high of 66.4 million, up from 28.8 million in 2016.
Trump has claimed that mail-in voting is “fraudulent,” but research has shown that this is a very rare scenario. In the 2022 midterm elections, mail-in voting fell to 32%, but it remains a crucial voting method for many Americans.
Early voting is widely available in 47 states, as well as territories like Guam, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. In most states, voters do not need a specific reason to vote early, but some states require individuals to request absentee ballots to vote early.
Only three states – Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire – do not offer in-person early voting.
Counting of votes
The first results are generally known at the end of election night. Polls typically close between 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m., with the winner often announced at 11:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
However, the increase in mail-in ballots has led to delays in final results, particularly in swing states where margins are tight. In 2020, for example, Joe Biden was only declared the winner after several days of counting in critical battleground states.
Media outlets such as CNN, NBC, and ABC rely on real-time vote counts and exit polls to determine project winners, while the Associated Press (AP) uses a more conservative approach . The AP employs about 4,000 correspondents across the country and only declares the winner when it is certain that remaining, uncounted ballots will not change the outcome.
The final step in the electoral process takes place in December, when the Electoral College officially votes. Governors or secretaries of state certify the results and on January 6, 2025, Congress will officially count the electoral votes.
The newly elected president will be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, marking the start of a four-year term.
Swing States
Swing states play an outsized role in determining the outcome of presidential elections. These states do not have a consistent party voting pattern and can flip between Republican and Democratic in a given election.
The top swing states in 2024 will likely be Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Winning these states is often decisive for candidates because of the large number of electoral votes at stake.
Campaigns are pumping millions of dollars into advertising and voter outreach in swing states. As of November 2023, Trump was leading everywhere except Wisconsin, underscoring how competitive these states can be.
In addition to the presidential elections, voters in many of these states will also have to decide on crucial local issues, including referendums on abortion rights in states like Montana and Arizona.
Elect members of Congress
The U.S. presidential election is only one part of the broader electoral process. On November 5, 2024, Americans will also elect 468 members of Congress, including 33 senators and all 435 members of the House of Representatives.
Eleven states and two territories will hold gubernatorial elections, while various local offices and referendums will also be on the ballot. For example, a referendum in Montana will determine whether the right to abortion should be enshrined in the state constitution.
These elections, along with the presidential race, form a dynamic and multifaceted process that reflects the decentralized nature of the American electoral system. Voters play a direct role in shaping not only national leadership, but also local and state policies that impact daily lives.
