Economic problems
American political pundits tend to assign particular importance to the current state of their country’s economy ahead of elections, given that voters tend to punish sitting presidents for high levels of unemployment And inflation. The country’s economic situation was particularly relevant in 2022 given the unprecedented levels of inflation experienced in the United States and around the world.
A veritable inflationary storm had formed thanks to a number of interrelated factors, notably around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. US inflation reached unprecedented levels and hovered around eight percent and above in the months leading up to the midterm elections. As a nation heavily dependent on carsvoters are also clearly sensitive to soaring gasoline prices, especially at a time when workers are seeing a general decline in their purchasing power and real wages. At the end of September 2022, nearly half of Americans described the state of the U.S. economy as poor.
Abortion
Another hot topic in the United States in 2022 was abortion rights. In June 2022, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) reversed its decision on Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decisions that protected the right to terminate a pregnancy. Roe was overturned in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, returning the power to make decisions about abortion to Individual States.
Not only was the SCOTUS decision considered widely unpopular, but it is also estimated to deprive 36 million women of access to abortion-related health services. The Dobbs decision was the first time in modern America that its citizens had a right taken away, and it would certainly have electoral implications. There was a huge increase in new voter registrations in the days following the decision and was ultimately a main motivator of Democratic voters especially. Perhaps Republicans should have anticipated the importance of this issue to voters, given a July 2022 poll, which found that 36 percent of people would be more likely to vote in light of the decision.
Political division and trust
The abortion debate in the United States has historically fallen by the wayside. party lines and was used as a tool to further exacerbate an already situation divided country. The two parties have very different priorities regarding the importance of different issues, such as civil rights, health care, climate and government spending. Democrats tend to place more emphasis on social issues, while Republicans tend to place more emphasis on economic issues.
Political divisions have also compounded broader institutional distrust on all ideological fronts. Approval for institutions such as Congress and the Supreme Court reaches new lows in 2022. Additionally, there is a trend towards Republican voters will be more wary of government agencies compared to Democrats. This distrust and division came to a head on January 6th, 2021. A mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol building as Congress was certifying the 2020 election results, leaving five people dead. There is notable disagreement between the two sides as to whether the attack should be considered a threat to democracy, suggesting that the two parties are divided over a fundamental ideal on which their country was founded. In the final days of the Democratic campaign for the midterm elections, President Biden said democracy was on the ballot.
Results
While the Republicans won enough seats to take control of the House of Representatives., the predicted red wave never materialized. When all the votes were counted, the Republican majority was reduced to just a handful of seats. A narrow margin could result in increased power for the party’s far right and could ultimately be problematic for the new House majority leader, given the national rebuke of far-right Trumpism.
Democrats retained control of the Senate thanks to a crucial recovery in Pennsylvania. Even if Republicans take control of the House, a Democratic-controlled Senate can reject legislation submitted by the House, making it harder for Republicans to implement their agenda. Additionally, control of the Senate means President Biden can fill vacant judicial seats at the district, circuit and high court levels.
Young voters were praised by the Democratic Party for their participation record number of votes for Democratic candidates. Young voters in minority ethnic origins played a particularly important role in the fight against the Democrats’ red wave.
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