According to our forecasts, the 2024 presidential election begins in the form of a coin toss. Although former President Donald Trump has a lead in most key states, they are close enough that a little movement — or polls that are a little too Republican-friendly — could result in President Joe Biden’s re-election. Right now, Biden is favored to win XXX over 1,000 simulations how the election could play out, as Trump gains XXX of our simulations. In XXX simulationno candidate wins a majority of the Electoral College votes, which would send the election to the House of Representatives.
Our forecast comes just a week and a half after Trump was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records in a scheme to pay hush money to a porn star during the election of 2016. Since May 30, he has lost ground in the polls, with his national margin in the polling average of 538 dropping from +1.7 to +1.0 Monday as of 1 p.m. Eastern. Our forecasts today estimate that there is still room for Biden to improve, with economic and political “fundamental” indicators pushing his projected margin in the national popular vote from -1.0 to +2 ,3 points. But he remains behind in key states, with a margin of just 1 point in Pennsylvania, the state most likely to tip the electoral college in favor of either candidate, well within our range of ‘uncertainty. And with Election Day five months away, there’s still plenty of room for the polls to change, as indicated by the 3 in 10 odds that either Trump or Biden will win a landslide victory of more than 350 electoral votes on November 5. .
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polling and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. This isn’t about “naming” a winner, but rather giving you an idea of how likely each candidate is to win. Check our methodology to find out exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
