NBC News looked at several demographic groups and which counties have the largest percentage of a particular group living there, according to the latest Census Bureau survey, which releases estimates for 2018 to 2022 — specifically, the roughly 300 counties located in the top 10% of each. band. For example, Hinds County, Mississippi has one of the highest concentrations of black people in the country, while Alameda County, California, with Asian Americans making up 32% of its population, has one of the highest concentrations of this racial group.
Experts highlight the participation rate and dissatisfaction with the economy as drivers of results. However, changes in voting patterns among certain demographic groups — although they shouldn’t be considered the focal point — are also visible, said Ken Kollman, a political science professor at the University of Michigan.
“The main story is Harris’ relatively low level of turnout in key Democratic seats compared to Biden in 2020,” Kollman said. “It’s a story of participation.”
Kollman highlighted exit polls showing a change among Hispanic menand added that Black men may have voted more for Trump or not for Harris.
Asian American voters in both the Northeast and the West turned to Trump, with experts suggesting the economy was a priority for the electorate.
In California, Merced County — which has one of the highest Asian American populations in the country — went for Trump, despite its voters throwing their collective weight behind Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
A major factor in Merced’s 17-point shift to the right was a lower vote total for Harris, who received 28% fewer votes than Biden in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump slightly improved on his 2020 performance .
Riverside, another California county where Asian Americans are strongly represented, also flipped to the Republican Party in a photo finish race decided by a few thousand votes.
However, the calculations in Riverside were different from those in Merced. Both candidates increased their vote totals from the previous election cycle. But even though Harris’ vote count increased by 21%, it couldn’t compete with Trump’s nearly 50% improvement.
On education, Trump improved his margin in counties with significant populations of high school diploma holders and college graduates, more than the national median.
However, the driving forces behind each tended to diverge. In counties where high school graduates were strongly represented, vote totals for Trump remained steady while Harris underperformed, losing a larger share of Biden’s 2020 coalition than any other educational category.
But in counties with the highest proportion of people with advanced degrees, Trump actually gained votes while Harris lost votes.
