Meanwhile, Trump praised autocrats and admitted he would act like a dictator, even if it’s only on “day one” of his presidency. He rejects these criticisms, defending his norm-breaking approach as an attempt to “reclaim our democracy from Washington’s corruption.”
The concern is palpable across the Atlantic.
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, one of the presidents of the European Union, warned lawmakers last month that Trump’s possible return meant “a year where our democracies and our freedoms will be tested.”
And former American diplomats of all stripes have He has repeatedly warned that Trump’s rhetoric and lies have done irreparable damage to Washington’s ability to preach democratic values abroad.
His victory “would have a ripple effect that would embolden autocrats around the world,” said Nic Cheeseman, one of Europe’s leading experts on authoritarianism and co-author of the 2018 book “How to Rig an Election.” , which analyzes the methods used. by despots to stay in power. Cheeseman, a professor at the University of Birmingham in England, said it would undermine “America’s commitment to democracy abroad.”
In Europe, nationalists and the far right could win a quarter of the seats in June’s European Parliament elections, according to a poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations, a Berlin-based think tank, and others.
The main players are the French National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her Brothers of Italy, and the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, whose youth wing is classified as a group ” far-right” by Parliament. the country’s own intelligence agencies.
Hungary has already shown how aligning with the hard right can mean more than just anti-immigration policies. Since 2010, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has pushed through constitutional changes giving him control of the judiciary and other institutions, according to Washington watchdog Freedom House.
If other countries “move in this direction”, it will then be more difficult for other legislators “to hold the course against the continued erosion of democracy, the rule of law and civil liberties”, believes the European Council on Foreign Relations. said in a report last month.
Meanwhile, Russia, China and others will likely continue the election interference that Western intelligence agencies now routinely expect but which Beijing and Moscow deny. This year’s Global Risks Report, published by the World Economic Forum, says misinformation and disinformation are the top risks over the next two years, even more so than war or climate change.
Democracy must be defended
If some leaders seek to overthrow democracy, young people seem increasingly willing to welcome them.
In a poll conducted last year among 36,000 people in 30 countries, 35% of people aged 18 to 35 said they were “favorable to the idea of a strong leader who abolishes parliaments and elections”, according to the Open Society Foundations study. , a pro-democracy group funded by billionaire philanthropist George Soros.
In Great Britain, a 2022 survey of 8,000 adults According to the center-right think tank Onward, 61% of this age group believe that such a strong man is a good way to lead a country, up from 25% in 1999.
This has indeed already happened in Russia, where President Vladimir Putin will face little competition when he seeks a fifth term in March, having stamped out press freedom and silenced his opponents.
Chief among them was Alexei Navalny, sent to an Arctic penal colony where he died on Saturday. North Korea isn’t even pretending, fielding just one candidate in each district for its April legislative elections. In Rwanda’s June elections, President Paul Kagame expects a repeat of his 98.63% victory from 2017.
In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has overseen a democratic backsliding since 2016, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, Freedom House and others. Modi is accused of repressing his opponents, restricting press freedom and persecuting the country’s Muslim minority.
And some observers are also concerned about the direction taken in Mexico, where President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has tried to promote constitutional reforms that “undermine the independence of electoral authorities, jeopardizing free and fair elections.” according to Human Rights Watch.
A month and a half into 2024, the elections held so far do not bode well.
Pakistan’s elections earlier this month were marked by the absence of former cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, who has been jailed on what his supporters say are politically motivated charges. Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele – who describes himself as “the coolest dictator in the world” – claimed victory even before the results were announced. And Indonesia’s Defense Minister, Prabowo Subianto, won his country’s presidency last week, worrying human rights activists who accuse him of kidnapping and torturing protesters in the 1990s. He denies the allegations.
Although concerned, none of the dozen former diplomats and academics interviewed by NBC News suggested that this gloomy picture was a reason to question democratic values.
And alongside cancellation and rigging, dozens of elections offer the possibility of healthy, robust elections in which citizens can make their voices heard.
Taiwan and Finland have already held free and fair votes. The December elections in Ghana are likely to be close. Britain looks set to overturn 13 years of conservative rule and win a landslide victory for the center-left Labor Party. And South African voters could for the first time oust the African National Congress, the former anti-apartheid movement that Nelson Mandela brought to power in 1994.
But most believe that reality should not be watered down.
“We face challenges around the world as some democracies slide toward autocracy,” said William Eacho, former U.S. ambassador to Austria and now board chairman of the International Foundation for electoral systems. “We should sound the alarm loud and clear: democracy must be defended. »
