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Cultural values and economic priorities: the not so shocking rise in Latin-American support in Trump
by Andrea Silva,, University of Northern Texas
Trends in Latin voting behavior
What factors explain the growing support to Trump and other Republican candidates among Latin voters from 2016 to 2024? In less than 10 years, Trump’s support among Latinos has increased by 16 points. The political behavior of Latinos highlights the salience of Latin heterogeneity in the United States. In addition, this shows the importance of understanding the factors that influence this change – economic concerns such as inflation, employment safety and cultural alignment with conservative values. In addition, regional differences and sub-groups guided the reshaping of political allegiances, delimited by targeted messages on immigration and economic stability.
Historical context
“Critical problems such as inflation, health care and education often have different importance between Latin subgroups. In addition, regional and cultural contexts shape the way these problems are hierarchical, further complicating the precision of national survey efforts. ”
Pollitologists have in fact been investigating Latin political and voting behavior for over thirty years (Hardy Fanta 1993; De la Garza and Louis Desipio 1996; Michelson 2003; Garcia Bedolla 2005; Segura and Bowler 2005; Barretto 2007; Garcia, Sanchez and Peralta 2009; Abrajano and Alvarez 2011; Hajnal and Lee 2011; Fraga et al 2012; Valenzuela and Michelson 2016; Saavedra Cisneros 2017). Researchers have also shown that campaigns often confuse Latinx as a monolithic group and neglect the nuanced identities of the community (2003 Stokes; Morals, Rodriguez and Schaller 2020). Such excessive simplifications (for example, immigration as a priority or Latinos as a democrats) ignore the heterogeneity that defines the Latin electorate.
Basic movementsespecially during the 1970s, Latinos mobilized mobilized and increased their electoral representation. The political landscape of Latinos has historically been shaped by external factors such as nativist movementswhich promotes anti-latino policies. Despite these challenges, the resilience of the Latin electorate is obvious thanks to their continuous plea for rights and representation, even in the face of political obstacles.
Factors influencing Latin support
Economic concerns
Economic problems have mainly formatted Latin voting behavior In recent elections. A The 2024 study revealed That two thirds of Latin voters considered the American economy as in poor condition, a significant increase compared to previous years. Recent studies point out that Latinos feel financially more badly lotis compared to previous periods, which has become their main concern. An April 2024 investigation found that 64%of Latin voters cited economic problems as their higher concern, inflation and the increase in the cost of living (20%) and the economy (19%) constantly ranking the main problems. In addition, a report In November 2024, stressed that the impact of inflation on daily life and economic choices was an important factor in the Latin voting decisions. Latin workers’ Latin voters were attracted to Trump tax reductions and the promises of economic alleviating, as erroneous. This underlines frustration Among Latin voters as They looked for the action against Increase in costs and economic instability.
What about Trump’s immigration policies?
The public, the pollsters and the campaigns have assumed Trump’s hard position on immigration policies would emerge the Latinos. This has actually created a paradoxical dynamic among Latin votersLike two thirds of Latinos in the United States are natural or naturalized citizens. While many were affected by deportation efforts, on A third of Latinos Agree with Trump’s account on stricter immigration controls. Almost 40% of Latinos Worry about someone they like to be expelled. However, a CBS News / Yougov survey of June 2024 revealed that a majority of Hispanic promote the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants living with illegally in the United States. 42% of Latinos Support the construction of a wall or a fence along the whole American-mexic border, and 38% support Send all undocumented immigrants to the United States in their country of origin. These perspectives highlight the complexity of immigration as a problem within the Latin community, where individual experiences shape contrasting points of view.
“The growing political commitment of Latin voters reflects a dynamic and evolving electorate.
Identity and cultural values
Cultural identity And family values appeared as another important factor in the political change between Latin American voters. Many Latinos families of Christian Confessionsespecially those with Strong religious beliefsincreasingly aligned with the Conservative values promoted by the Republicans. Concerns concerning the overcoming of the government in personal and family questions also resonated with votersReinforce their support for its promises to maintain traditional family values. Cohort During the last three generations of Latinos, have also influenced the measure that Latinos support Trump. Latinos immigrants first and second generation, Like other immigrants before They have an individual political socialization This mixes to create a unique perspective on politics in the United States.
Erroned ballot and perceptions
National Latino Slow Voters have historically been inadequate, leading to erroneous hypotheses on their political preferences (Leal, Barreto and Lee 2005; Albrajano and Alvarez 2010; Ramírez 2013; BARTO and RENY 2017). According to recent analyzes of Sanchez and TafoyaMost national electoral polls are not designed to take into account the variation of sub-groups within the wider electorate. Low samples for Latin respondents and the lack of Spanish language investigation options exacerbate this problem. Therefore, Polls often fail To capture the various perspectives of the Latin American community.
Inaccuracies of polls also result from an excessive simplification of the priorities of Latin voters. Critical problems such as inflation, health care and education often have different importance between Latin subgroups. In addition, regional and cultural contexts shape the way these problems are hierarchical, which further complicates the precision of national survey efforts.
Sanchez and Tafoya Affirm that the fight against these gaps requires the design of survey systems taking into account the accessibility of language and the representation of subgroups. Without such improvements, predictions on Latin voting behavior will remain limited in terms of precision and scope.
Republican Rizz or Democrat Clapback?
“A April 2024 survey noted that 64%of Latin American voters cited economic problems as their higher concern, inflation and the increase in the cost of living (20%) and the economy (19%) systematically ranking the main problems. »»
Many quickly blamed the Latinos for the electoral victory of Donald Trump, suggesting that their decreasing support for the Democrats had cost the race for the party. Although Harris obtained worse with Latin voters that Joe Biden in 2020, She has always collected most of their votes in 2024. Even without the Latin change, Trump would have always won.
It is no surprise that Latin voters were growing dissatisfaction concerning the performance of Democratic leadershipespecially during the Biden-Harris administration. Many Latin voters expressed dissatisfaction with regard to economic policies: Inflation and cost of living increase. The survey after his investigation indicated that economic problems and inflation were more priority for many Latin communities In recent elections. As Latinos are a demographic group which believes itself considerably with economic vulnerability, this economic threat Probably fed Their desire to consider Trump’s message. The emphasis placed by the Democratic Party on issues of social justice and identity policy may have alienated Latin American voters who considered it depreciating their concerns about employment safety and economic stability.
The growing political engagement of Latin voters reflects a dynamic and evolving electorate. Voting behavior trends demonstrate the importance of solving critical problems such as economic stability and cultural values. For political campaigns, success will depend on the surpassing of monolithic hypotheses and the implementation of strategies that resonate with identities and nuanced priorities of Latin American communities.
Andrea Silva is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Northern Texas and associate director of his American-Mexican study program. His work focuses on federalism, racial and ethnic policy and representation in the United States. His next book is studying how direct democracy mechanisms influence state immigration policy for immigrants. She is also the recipient of a subsidy of the National Science Foundation, supporting her research on the way in which state food policies shape the capacity of immigrants and colored communities to access healthy and nutritious foods.
