Domestic unrest may dominate the headlines surrounding the 2024 elections, but threats from abroad have not dissipated.
During the 2022 midterm elections, state actors from China, Russia, Iran and elsewhere increase their attempts to influence the results of the midterm elections and amplify divisions in American society, according to double reports released last month by the US national security apparatus. And hostile governments have scanned state election websites and copied voter data, without compromising the vote itself.
Americans need to understand why foreign actors want to interfere in U.S. elections, how they do it, and what we can do to protect the integrity of our electoral process as the 2024 primary season approaches.
Authoritarian governments like China, Russia, and Iran have three main motivations for interfering in the 2024 elections: diminish the credibility of our democracy, distract our country with internal problems in order to erode American leadership abroad and modify our policy to favor their interests. If Americans lack confidence in the integrity of democratic elections or the country plunges into political crisis, foreign autocrats can point the finger at us to distract their own citizens from the many shortcomings of their own system authoritarian politics. And American preoccupation with internal electoral unrest could weaken our foreign engagements in countries like Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel, regions where these authoritarians have deep and abiding interests contrary to ours.
These regimes favor certain political candidates and, in the midterms, China (and even Cuba) sought to direct elections towards candidates aligned with their programs. A U.S. president less interested in maintaining strong U.S. leadership abroad or supporting our allies would be a strategic victory for these countries.
Nation-state actors use a variety of tools and tactics to influence our elections. They carry out online information manipulation and influence campaigns; carry out cyber intrusions and attacks; putting dirty money into our system; and reach out to candidates, campaigns, and diaspora communities, either directly or through cutouts. The advent of generative artificial intelligence enables malicious actors to conduct information campaigns and cyberattacks at unprecedented scale and volume.
AI-generated content has played a role in other democratic elections this year, including Slovakia And Argentinawhere it was used to slander candidates and spread misleading information, such as a viral (but false) recording of a candidate promising to increase the price of beer.
Campaigns and political parties are experiment And Fight With with AI in the American elections. Over the past week, a robocall featuring a fake voice of President Biden urged New Hampshire voters to skip Tuesday’s primary. National and local election officials are preparing for an increase in cyberattacks and more realistic fake images, audio and video that could fuel false claims about voter fraud as the Federal Election Commission does try to regulate this misinformation.
To be clear, these challenges to election integrity are not posed exclusively by foreign actors. Whether in the service of money, power, or chaos, anyone can use many of the tools and tactics nation states have at their disposal to undermine the integrity of elections, especially with AI at hand. of all. However, in many ways, the United States is an easy target for our foreign adversaries.
The United States is highly polarized. Tens of millions of Americans believe lies that the electoral system is already rigged. Our free and open information environment makes us vulnerable to all kinds of campaigns aimed at denigrating the functioning of the electoral process. Additionally, there are more than 10,000 electoral jurisdictions in the country, and while elections are more secure than ever across the board, some jurisdictions remain lack the means to combat a viral image or video created in a basement, not to mention deter a hostile intelligence service.
These vulnerabilities are serious but not insurmountable. Election officials and federal and state officials are functioning tirelessly to defend ourselves against any interference in our elections. There are promising technologies that can help managers, media, and the public better differentiate between authentic and manipulated content. When appropriate, trusted military and defense leaders can communicate foreign adversaries’ intentions to undermine U.S. military readiness and national security, which is one of the primary reasons why these adversaries are trying to destabilize democracy in the United States. Finally, if Americans are turned off by political discourse, now is the time to participate directly in democracy. Volunteering as an election worker, for example, is an important way to see for yourself all the processes and procedures in place that protect the sanctity of voting against all kinds of threats. By strengthening our participatory democracy, we offer the best defense against authoritarians who have a vested interest in destabilizing the United States in 2024 and beyond.
David Salvo and Rachael Dean Wilson are co-executive directors of the Alliance for Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
