Stack Data Strategy predicts that former President Trump would beat President Joe Biden for president if the election were held today.
Stack published a polling model Monday that showed Biden winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College by 292 votes for Trump, compared to 246 votes for Biden.
He predicted Biden would lose four states he won in 2020: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia.
He projected Biden as the winner in two other swing states, Michigan and Nevada.
“Our research is the largest exercise of its kind so far this cycle and we can confidently say that as things stand, if Donald Trump is selected as the Republican nominee, he is likely to win,” said Joe Bedell, Head of Stack Data Strategy. in a report.
The study surveyed approximately 15,000 respondents across the United States between October 12 and November 3. Researchers then used respondents’ responses to populate a model projecting the 2024 electoral map based on the survey.
In Pennsylvania, Trump leads by 2.3 percent and in Georgia, by 3.3 percent, according to Stack polls. In Arizona and Wisconsin, Trump has less than a two percent lead over Biden.
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The poll still projects Biden to narrowly win Michigan and Nevada.
The poll found that if Democrats ran a different candidate than Biden, such as Vice President Harris or California Governor Gavin Newsom, Trump would win by a larger margin.
“Despite recent calls for change, our poll also shows that neither party would benefit from a change in nominee, with President Trump beating both possible Biden replacements by an even greater margin,” Bedell said.
Likewise, if Republicans nominated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as their candidate, Biden would easily win re-election with 359 electoral votes to DeSantis’ 179 votes, according to the poll.
While Trump remains the favorite in the GOP primary, DeSantis has remained a distant contender in second place since launching his campaign. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is considered a rising GOP candidate.
This news also comes as a separate poll brought negative news for the Biden campaign.
A survey by Global Strategy Group and the Financial Times found that only 14 percent of respondents said their financial situation had improved since Biden became president, while 55 percent said their situation was worse.
Nearly half of those surveyed said Biden’s economic policies hurt the economy, while only 26% said they helped it. Sixty-one percent say they disapprove of how Biden has handled the economy.
Overall, 59% of respondents disapprove of how Biden is handling his job as president.
The Global Strategy Group and Financial Times poll was based on 1,004 interviews between November 2 and 7 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
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