Heading into election week, one Democratic strategist described the mood in the party as “nauseating optimism” that Vice President Kamala Harris will win, as polls show a surprisingly close race against Donald Trump.
A campaign full of twists and turns will culminate on election day. Harris and Trump are locked in a stalemate in the seven battleground states likely to decide the outcome, which are scattered across the northern Great Lakes region and the Sun Belt.
Here are five keys to Harris’ bid to make history and become the first woman, first Black woman and first Native American person to serve as president.
Standing strong with Black and Latino voters
One of the agonizing questions for Democrats in this election is whether they will maintain overwhelming support among black voters and prevent a further erosion of Latino support. In 2020, Joe Biden door 92% of black voters and 59% of Latinos.
Harris I can’t afford a lot of slip-ups. with these groups, which are full of low-propensity voters who need to be encouraged to participate. But retaining them is easier said than done in the 2024 elections.
Polls show a significant share of Black and Latino voters are curious about Trump this year, with the potential to generate significant gains for his party.
Here are five keys to a Trump victory
But will this curiosity materialize in real votes for Trump at the polls? Or can Harris bring them back into the Democratic fold over the period? And among those who don’t vote, will they be disproportionately conservative Trump supporters or liberal Harris supporters? The answers loom large in Harris’s victory hopes. She faces the crucial task of amassing her share of nonwhite supporters, including Democratic-leaning Asian Americans.
Abortion gives women the power to go to the polls
All signs point to a growing gender gap, with women leaning more toward Democrats and men — including nonwhite men who historically vote blue — tending toward Republicans. The election could result in one of the largest gender gaps in modern history and would depend on which side turns out in greater numbers.
Harris focused on abortion and reproductive autonomy to try to attract female voters, capitalizing on Trump’s success in ending Roe v. Wade and the possibility that Congress and the president could either enshrine Roe into law or ban abortion nationwide. Harris made a recent appearance on the popular podcast “Call Her Daddy” to mobilize less politically engaged women.
Meanwhile, Trump has increased his efforts to court men, including young Gen Z men who are disenchanted with Democrats. He appeared on Joe Rogan’s Popular Podcastpromoted cryptocurrency and got close to Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy and billionaire Elon Musk — a strategy that John Della Volpe, director of youth surveys at Harvard, describes as “brother whispering.”
Will young men defect and join Trump? If that’s the case, Harris will need to run up the score with the women to defeat him. Early voting shows that women are participating in greater numbers, but there is no guarantee that this will remain the case on Election Day.
Growing Democratic Support in the Suburbs
Harris strives to increase its margins in the suburbs, courting soft Republicans, center-right independents and moderates who are turned off by Trump. She is campaigning with former Republican Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, who have criticized Trump as authoritarian, citing among other things his calls to use state power against political rivals and his quest to stay in power after losing the 2020 elections.
Well-educated, disproportionately white suburban voters have been a bright spot for Harris this cycle, especially when Trump is making no significant effort to retain the fifth of voters who voted for Nikki Haley in the 2024 Republican primaries. could give Harris a crucial boost, as these voters tend to reliably turn out election after election.
Trump is expected to dominate rural and less educated parts of the country. If he outperforms polls among this group as he did in previous elections, Harris will need to increase his margins among white college graduates, who favored Biden by 15 percentage points in 2020.
Neutralize Trump on the economy and immigration
A big priority for Harris throughout the streak has been to reduce the “trust gap” enjoyed by Trump with voters on the management of the economy, the cost of living being a priority issue for voters in swing states.
Her team believes they must achieve a draw in order to prevail and appeal to voters on the question of who cares about them most. Harris, by placing cost reduction at the center of her agenda, gained considerable ground over Biden before he dropped out in July.
Will this be enough? Some surveys show that it has virtually neutralized the problem. The question is whether this extends to the electorate that turns out. If so, Harris will have covered her greatest vulnerability with influential voters.
Additionally, Trump campaigned largely on migration fears and blamed Harris for the chaos at the southern border. This is a major vulnerability for the vice president, but is it politically fatal? Harris responded by turning to the right and attacking Trump for killing a bipartisan border security program that would have made it harder to get asylum. She doesn’t need to win on this issue, but she does need to mitigate the damage.
Deliver a Superior Ground Game
If the election is indeed decided closely, Harris may need her “ground game” – the unglamorous mechanics of door-to-door canvassing, voter mobilization and using local presence to get supporters – to obtain the margins that will make the difference.
Much has been made of Trump’s relative lack of playing field, with the former reality TV star relying instead on his celebrity status to reach his supporters and outsourcing other elements of the participation push to Musk, his billionaire ally who has no experience in this area.
In 2016, Trump won the presidency despite a shaky ground game. In 2020, some Democrats feel they underperformed because they virtually halted their ground game due to Covid-19 and ceded the playing field to Republicans to physically reach voters. They rectified that in 2022. This year, Democrats are once again relying on their ground operations to achieve this. Their theory is that this could tip a 50-50 election in Harris’ favor. Time will tell if their theory is correct.
