The first screening of Yougov in the Canadian federal elections of 2025 is a liberal majority of 21, which would see Prime Minister Carney returning to 24 Sussex with a majority of the small but very Bicalise government.
We expect the liberals to be somewhere between 163 and 201 seats, with a central estimate of 182, which means that a suspended parliament is very inside the areas of the possibility. We expect their main opposition, the conservatives, between 115 and 153 seats, with a central projection of 133.
Our MRP model, based on more than 20,000 interviews with Canadians in the country, has the New Democratic Party (NPD) to record its worst result, winning only four constituencies. The Green Party seems ready to keep one of their two current seats, while we are also planning a disappointing night – but not a calamitarian – for the Quebec Bloc, going from 34 seats in 2021 to 23 now.
In terms of voting share, we plan that the liberals will win around 42%of the vote, the conservatives 38%, the NPD 10%, the 6%block, the Greens 2%, the Party of Peoples 2%and other parts 1%.
The result of the projected liberal victory is mainly motivated by their ability to capitalize on the collapse of the NPD and to gain a large number of seats in the Quebec Bloc at a pace much larger than the Conservatives are unable to gain seats of the above and the Liberals themselves.
In fact, in a great demonstration of the particularity of this election, we expect the liberals and the conservatives to exchange 12 seats from each other.
For example, we plan that even if the conservatives of Pierre Hairy will collect seven constituencies currently held by the NPD of Jagmeet Singh, the Liberals will collect 13. The Liberals that we also expect to take 11 Quebec seats in the block, but we plan only one seat to go from the block to the Conservatives.
Overall, we expect the block considerably decreasing on their 2021 result due to a clear pressure of their vote by the liberals.
For the conservatives, a strong performance in the Grand Toronto region is the key to any potential victory – including the main constituencies of what is called 905. While we expect them to make earnings in certain Toronto seats, such as Aurora – Oak – Richmond Hill and Newmarket – Aurora ridges, our MRP projects that conservatives will do lose Liberal seats elsewhere in Ontario, like the bay of Quinte and the two ridings of Niagara (Niagara Falls-Niagara-On-The-Lake South).
Another important area in this electoral result is the circuits of the Lower Mainland and the island of Vancouver in British Columbia, each of the Liberals, the Conservatives, the NPDs and the Greens who won places in 2021.
British Columbia in general is a bastion of the NPD, and this is where we expect the liberals and the conservatives to make strong gains against Singh holders. Currently, we plan that the Conservatives will collect five seats in British Columbia at the NDP and the Liberals Seven.
From now on, we expect the co -leader of the Green Party Elizabeth May to keep its district of Saanich – the Gulf Islands. However, we expect the leader of the NPD, Jagmeet Singh, to lose his competition in the central Burnaby of the Liberals.
This result of projected global elections would be a huge reversal for outgoing liberals against a few months ago when they looked at what looked like the defeat in the hands of the conservatives.
Since then, a change in leadership by Justin Trudeau and the recent actions and actions of Donald Trump taken against Canada and its export economy have propelled the power in place in favor of the Canadian public.
Trump’s prices management by Prime Minister Carney is undoubtedly a fundamental reason behind the dramatic change in the fortune of the Liberal Party this year. According to Recent Survey YougovFor 50% of Canadians, the American-Canadian relationship is one of the three main problems that Canada is confronted today. In the same survey, we found that Canadians are more likely to trust Carney on Hairyvre to manage the problem with a margin of 41% to 26%.
That said, the Conservatives and Hairy are much more competitive with Carney and the Liberals on other key electoral problems, including housing (which 37% of Canadians have chosen as one of their three main problems) and inflation (33%). While Carney stays ahead of Hairy on whom Canadians trust more to manage inflation, the gap is smaller than on the issue of American -Canadian relations: 37% -28%. On the question of housing, the two men are actually equal to 27% and 29%, respectively.
A suspended parliament remains a possibility in the model, although small. From our thousands of simulations, the liberals win a majority in around 88%. A suspended parliament occurs in approximately 11%, while a conservative majority appears in approximately 1% of simulations.
Yougov will continue to monitor how Canadian public opinion is changing this week while we are heading in the last days of the campaign before the vote itself on April 28, and produced an MRP screening on April 25.
Image: Getty (Andrej Ivanov / Stringer)
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