Minnesota elections: a year away – here are the key races to watch in 2024
Hundreds of races will take place next year across the state, from county commissioner to president of the United States, each affecting communities in different ways.
Democratic U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar is up for re-election, but after 16 years in Washington, she has established herself as a tough candidate to beat. For the moment, she does not have a major challenger announced.
Three Republicans dropped their hats in the ring, all of whom have less than $400 on hand according to Federal Election Commission filings: Patrick Munro, John Berman and Mike Ruoho. So we won’t put this one on our watch list just yet.
In the meantime, here are four other races to watch:
The presidential race and a (possible) Minnesotan on the ballot
Fun fact: Minnesota hasn’t had a presidential candidate since Vice President Walter Mondale in the 1980 election.
Despite popular sentiment that next year’s vote will be a repeat of 2020, the first primaries are still more than a month away. The two outgoing leaders are not stopping the challengers from stepping up to the plate.
Seven candidates are vying for the Republican nomination. Former President Donald Trump holds a significant lead over his challengers, former South Carolina Gov. Niki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Despite near-unanimous support from the Democratic Party, Biden faces two distant contenders: self-help author Marianne Williamson and Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips.
Phillips’ seat in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District is considered safe for Democrats and represents mostly suburban and wealthy cities west of Minneapolis. The three-term congressman expressed his concern on Biden’s ability to beat Trump if they were both candidates. Phillips cited Biden’s age and lack of support from fellow Democrats and independent voters.
Recent data from the New York Times and Sienna College found Trump leading Biden in five of the six swing states surveyed. However, when asked who they would vote for before in a race between Trump and another Democrat, 48% voted for the unnamed Democrat, signaling the electorate’s desire to see Biden replaced on the ballot.
Biden won Minnesota’s 2020 vote by more than seven percent.
Up for grabs: A safe Democratic seat in the 3rd Congressional District
Phillips, who represents Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District, announced last week he will not seek re-election for the seat, even if he loses the Democratic nomination. Two Democrats have already entered the race to fill the west suburban seat. “After three mandates, it is time to pass the torch” Phillips said in a statement.
Ron Harris announced his campaign a few weeks before Phillips announced his candidacy for president, although speculation had been growing for months about Phillips’ possible presidential run. The Democratic National Committee chairman previously worked on the campaigns of former President Barack Obama and former Sen. Al Franken. This is his first time running for public office.
State Sen. Kelly Morrison received numerous high-profile endorsements in the month she was in the race. Morrison is a practicing OB-GYN serving District 45. She previously served in the Minnesota House of Representatives from 2018 to 2022. Her state Senate seat is not up for re-election until next year.
The district stretches from Anoka to Bloomington, going as far east as St. Boniface. In 2018, Phillips flipped the seat and was re-elected in 2022 with 60% of the vote. So far, no Republicans have entered the race.
A nationalized blue-on-blue race in the Fifth Congressional District
Democratic U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar won her third term in the Fifth Congressional District in 2022 by less than two percentage points over challenger Don Samuels. The former Minneapolis city council member announced his second campaign against the congresswoman last month. Samuels outperformed Omar in the second half of the 2022 campaign, ending his run after spending more than $1 million.
David Schultz, an election law expert and professor of law and political science at Hamline University, predicts the fight for Omar’s seat will be one of the costliest primaries in the country, although it is of a “safe Democratic constituency”. Omar condemned Israel in its war against Hamas and has been the subject of criticism over the years for comments considered offensive and isolating to the Jewish community.
“I expect this race to attract a phenomenal amount of national money,” Schultz said. “You’re going to see national Jewish groups, national constituencies, Palestinian groups, etc. They’re going to want to weigh in on that.”
“This could be the most expensive primary, one of the most expensive in the United States.”
So far, no Republican challenger has emerged.
A possible flip in a light blue second congressional district
U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, D-2, is seeking her fourth term serving the district, but the race won’t be without a fight. The last four elections in the district have all been won by Democrats – but only by a few digits. In 2022, Craig defeated his GOP opponent by just five points. In 2020, she won by just two.
Craig already faces three Republican challengers: former Lexington Mayor Mike Murphy, former federal prosecutor and Marine Corps veteran Joe Teirab and criminal lawyer Tayler Rahm.
The Second District covers the southwest Twin Cities metro area, including urban, suburban and rural areas, creating a dynamic district for which both parties will compete in 2024.
— Sam Woodward is the Minnesota elections reporter for USA Today. Contact her at swoodward@gannett.com and follow her on X @woodyreports.
