WASHINGTON — Most presidential candidates look for signs of trouble during the campaign — but none until former President Donald Trump saw the signs. threats of criminal convictions And be excluded from the ballot.
Legal issues may pose the biggest threat to Trump’s huge lead in Republican pollsas rivals urge voters to put the drama of the Trump era behind them.
Polls show that, so far, Republican voters rallied behind Trump after a series of indictments in 2023; but he and his aides expressed concern that 2024 voters might tire of all the drama and start turning to other candidates.
Trump has repeatedly attacked lawsuits and prosecutions and urged voters to stick with him during the next caucuses and primaries.
“Crazy things can happen,” Trump said Tuesday in Waterloo, Iowa.
As Trump and his rivals enter the 2024 electionThere are at least three signs of trouble for the former president leading the way.
Here are some of the things that can and will happen to Trump as he continues his presidency:
Unfavorable court decisions
The potential for legal problems is ever-present around Trump and could arise at any time.
Last Tuesday, the Colorado Supreme Court stunned the political world by declaring that Trump is ineligible for public office due to his supporters’ insurrection January 6, 2021.
The ruling could potentially disqualify Trump from the ballot in Colorado — prompting other states to follow suit — but Trump’s lawyers are confident the Supreme Court will overturn the disqualification decision.
In the meantime, Trump, his lawyers and his campaign team must prepare for the possibility of up to four criminal trials during a campaign year.
Two attempts – one in Washington, D.C., And the other in Atlanta — involved efforts to overturn President Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election. There is also a case in New York state regarding secret payments and a federal case in Florida regarding classified documents.
District trial was scheduled for March but is on hold because of pre-trial motions.
Trump’s legal team is seeking to delay all criminal trials until after Election Day, Nov. 5, and for good reason: A criminal conviction would transform the presidential race.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll this month, “about 31 percent of Republican respondents said they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a crime by a jury.”
A potentially damaging civil trial also looms against the former president.
A second defamation trial for writer E. Jean Carrollwho won a $5 million judgment against Trump in May, is scheduled to begin Jan. 15 — the same day as the Iowa caucuses, the start of the Republican nominating process.
Drop in poll numbers; rising rivals
Trump’s Republican rivals warn that his ongoing legal problems will eventually exhaust voters who might begin to consider alternatives.
Trump’s rhetoric has also intensified, including describing political opponents like “vermin”, saying migrants “poisoned” Americans; and threatening to sue political opponents.
Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolinawho is rising in New Hampshire primary polls, says voters want to move past the turmoil of the Trump era.
“Chaos follows him,” Haley told Fox News this week.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantiswho is banking on a good performance in Iowa, also said he would avoid the “chaos” of the Trump years.
Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey, who is betting his candidacy by a wide margin on New Hampshire, is Trump’s most vocal critic on the campaign trail. He says Trump’s legal problems and divisive rhetoric already make him unfit for public office.
Bad reaction from voters
The worst sign for Trump would come from the voters.
If Trump underperforms in Iowa caucuses on January 15, and DeSantis does better than expected, it will embolden opponents.
If Haley beats Trump in New Hampshire primary on January 23, this could completely change the race. Haley also has high hopes for her Home State of South Carolinawhich holds its Republican primary on February 24.
If Haley succeeds in Iowa and wins in New Hampshire, “the momentum will swing heavily in her favor before South Carolina,” said Lara Brown, a political scientist and author of “Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants “.
In that case, Brown said, “DeSantis and Christie will probably drop out.”
As they navigate a political minefield, Trump and his campaign aides have said they count on a massive influx of delegates on March 5, the day of “Super Tuesday” primaries in more than a dozen states .
They hope to have enough delegates to clinch the nomination after a series of primaries on March 19 in large states, including Florida and Ohio.
Even if he does, criminal trials still loom.
If Trump is tried and convicted before the start of the republican convention on July 15, his appointment could likely be challenged on the ground.
“Will one of our major parties nominate a convicted felon for President of the United States? said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.
“I don’t know and neither does anyone else,” he said. “We’ve never faced this kind of thing before.”
