President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are on track for a rematch in the Nov. 5 presidential election. Polls show Trump holds a sizable lead over all other Republican candidates, while no major Democratic figures are challenging Biden for their party’s nomination.
However, questions regarding Trump’s action legal difficulties and the ages of both candidates lurk in the background. Trump faces 91 criminal charges, with at least one criminal trial expected this year. And health concerns could affect either Trump, 77, or Biden, 81.
What would happen if one of them was forced to drop out of the race for health, legal or other reasons? The answer depends on when such a scenario occurs.
Between January 15 and the party congresses
States hold caucus and primary elections between January 15 and June 4, 2024. The two candidates who win the most delegates will officially become their party’s candidates at the conventions. The Republican National Convention will be held July 15-18 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Democratic National Convention will take place August 19-22 in Chicago, Illinois.
Trump and Biden are expected to be nominated by their respective parties. But if someone drops out between the start of the caucus primary season and their party convention, some states may extend candidate filing deadlines and primary dates to allow more people to enter the race, depending on when it takes place.
Such expansions are more likely to occur among Democrats, because Biden has no major competition. His opponents, Rep. Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson, lack name recognition and are already unqualified to appear on several states’ ballots.
“They would like there to be some semblance of primaries,” said John C. Fortier, a researcher specializing in elections and government continuity at the American Enterprise Institute. “It would be very short notice, but they could leave before the people,” he told VOA.
Even with processes in place, there may not be time to change names on ballots, and primary voters may end up seeing the name of a deceased or damaged candidate. incapacity when voting. With early voting allowed in some states, a candidate who dropped out might have already collected votes.
In this case, states can pass emergency legislative changes to allow delegates to shift their vote to a new candidate during the convention. To win the nomination, a Republican candidate needs at least 1,215 of 2,429 delegates, and a Democratic candidate needs 1,969 of 3,936.
“He may not be someone who is currently in the race,” said Michael Thorning, director of structural democracy at the Bipartisan Policy Institute. “It could be someone that the convention determines is the best standard bearer for the party and the person most likely to win in the general election,” he told VOA.
Between conventions and election day
Each party has its own set of rules for dropping its candidate during this time, but in essence, it would replace the candidate’s name on the presidential ballot. Emergency changes to certain state laws may be necessary.
“There is a technical process whereby it is not the entire Congress, but a small group of people who run the party, people who are really not known to Americans, who can make the decision to nominate someone another as a candidate,” Fortier said. He added that the parties should probably appeal to the American people and explain to them why the new candidate has legitimacy.
Although Vice President Kamala Harris could be asked to lead the Democratic field, for example, the law does not require it.
“The vice-presidential candidate status at this point confers no guarantee that they will ascend to the presidency,” Thorning said.
Again, it may not be time to replace the former candidate’s name on the ballot, and that candidate may have already received votes due to early voting.
Between Election Day and the Electoral College meeting
Once questions or disputes about the election results are resolved, electors in each state will meet on December 17 to select the president-elect and vice president-elect.
If either Trump or Biden died or became incapacitated during that time, their vice president-elect would not automatically replace them, because the provisions of the Presidential Succession Act do not yet apply.
The replacement process during this period is essentially the same: the electors of the president-elect will vote for a new candidate. There are no federal guidelines on the process, and some states have their own rules for how voters cast ballots.
The vice president-elect would be a logical choice but not guaranteed by law.
If voters cannot agree on a new president-elect, under the 12th Amendment, the House of Representatives would elect the president and the Senate would elect the vice president, in a procedure known as a “conditional election.” “.
Until Congress appoints a new president-elect, under the 20th Amendment, the vice president-elect becomes acting president on Inauguration Day.
Between Electoral College meeting and Congressional certification
It is unclear what would happen if a candidate died or became incapacitated between the Dec. 17 meeting of electors and the Jan. 6 congressional counting and certification of electoral votes.
Between Congressional Certification and Inauguration Day
According to the 20th Amendment, the vice president-elect would be inaugurated president on January 20, 2025, if the president-elect dies or is incapacitated after Congress certifies the result of the election.
In every period, there is a risk of legal and political crisis, particularly if the election outcome is contested as was the case in 2020. While Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate and Republicans in the House of Representatives, Determining who will become the next president could become an extremely complicated process that drags on in the courts.
And as the country witnessed during the siege of the Capitol by Trump supporters on January 6, 2021, it could turn bloody again.
