WASHINGTON – Allan Lichtman, the historian who correctly predicted the outcome of 9 of the 10 most recent elections presidential electionshas made his guess about who will take over the White House this year.
Spoiler alert: it’s Vice President Kamala Harris.
Lichtman said in a video, first reported by The New York Timesthat he based his prediction on thirteen key questions or “true or false questions that exploit the strength and performance of the White House party.”
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Who is Allan Lichtman?
Before receiving the title of “distinguished professor” from American University in Washington, DC, Lichtman earned a doctorate in modern American history and quantitative methods from Harvard.
In addition to lecturing throughout the United States and internationally, Lichtman is the author of 13 books and hundreds of academic articles. He has also served as an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases.

He regularly provides political commentary and is best known for his election predictions.
Allan Lichtman: What are the 13 keys to a successful election campaign?
Keys include if:
◾ The White House party gained seats in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections.
◾ The incumbent president is running for re-election.
◾ The White House party avoids primaries.
◾ There is a third party challenger.
◾ The short-term economy is strong.
◾ Long-term economic growth was as good as in the last two quarters.
◾ The White House party has brought major changes to national politics.
◾ Social unrest continues during the mandate.
◾ The White House is not tainted by scandal, the ruling party is charismatic.
◾ The challenger is not charismatic.
◾ The holder is charismatic.
◾ The White House party has made a serious mistake in foreign policy.
◾ The White House party is successful in foreign policy.
Eight of the keys are in favor of Harriswhile three are in favor of Asset.
“Foreign policy is tricky, and those keys could flip,” he said in the video. “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster that is not ending in sight. But even if the two keys to foreign policy flip, that would mean there are only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to win back the White House.”
That leaves Harris as the only one who wins the White House, he said. “That’s at least my prediction for this election, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election in the past half-century, with the exception of 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
Contributed by Karissa Waddick