With less than two months to go until the 2024 presidential election, the race is raging to see who will become the next president of the United States between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Heading into Tuesday night’s second presidential debate and the first between these two candidates, Trump, the 45th president of the United States, held a narrow lead as he was a -125 favorite, meaning he currently has a 55.5 percent chance of being elected in November. via bet365 on Covers.com.
Harris came in at +100, or “even,” which is right in the middle with an implied 50/50 probability of becoming the first woman to officially become president in U.S. history.
So what are the odds of winning after tonight’s debate? Here are the numbers you need to know, how this race changed this summer, and more information on the 2024 presidential election:
*Disclaimer: Federal law prohibits political betting in the United States, including the 2024 presidential election.
2024 presidential election predictions: Harris edges Trump as betting favorite
After their first debate against each other, the odds changed with Harris now the favorite with odds of -125 on bet365 via Covers.com following Tuesday evening’s debate.
This gives Harris a 55.5 percent implied probability of winning the presidency, while Trump falls to a tie, or +100, a 50 percent implied probability with less than 60 days until a new U.S. president is elected.
There is currently no set second debate between the two candidates after the first meeting at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on September 10.
The next major debate will be between Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance’s vice presidential choices on Oct. 1, broadcast on CBS News in New York.
If either Walz or Vance performs better than their opponent next month, it could give the respective party a slight advantage with nearly a month to go until Election Day.
2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Once U.S. President Joe Biden dropped his bid for a second team on July 21, Trump was a massive -200 favorite (bet $200 to win $100) on bet365 to be elected president of the United States for the second time while Harris was at 2/1 (bet $100 to win $200) in the betting market.
As seen above, those numbers have now changed dramatically with Harris as the new betting favorite.
The battle has been fierce between the two candidates, with Harris emerging as the frontrunner in mid-August before Trump regained the lead ahead of Tuesday’s debate.
With voters still having plenty of time to choose who will occupy the Oval Office, don’t be surprised if this see-saw battle continues, with Trump and Harris continually outdoing each other over the next eight weeks.
Accuracy of presidential election probabilities throughout history
According to the Conversation, The presidential frontrunner has lost only twice since 1866.
One such surprise was Trump himself, when he overcame odds of 7/2 (implied probability of victory of 22.22) to defeat Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee in the 2016 presidential election.
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