Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections. And he doesn’t think Donald Trump will return to the White House.
For the 2024 election, the historian predicted that Kamala Harris would be the next president. Here’s a look at his process.
Who is Allan Lichtman?
Before receiving the title of “Distinguished Professor” from the American University of WashingtonDC, Lichtman received a doctorate in modern American history and quantitative methods from Harvard.
In addition to lecturing throughout the United States and internationally, Lichtman is the author of 13 books and hundreds of academic articles. He has also served as an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases.
He regularly provides political commentary and is best known for his election predictions.
How does Lichtman make his choices for the presidential elections?
Lichtman said in a video, first reported by The New York Timesthat he based his prediction on thirteen key questions or “true or false questions that exploit the strength and performance of the White House party.”
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Keys include if:
◾ The White House party gained seats in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections.
◾ The incumbent president is running for re-election.
◾ The White House party avoids primaries.
◾ There is a third party challenger.
◾ The short-term economy is strong.
◾ Long-term economic growth was as good as in the last two quarters.
◾ The White House party has brought major changes to national politics.
◾ Social unrest continues during the mandate.
◾ The White House is not tainted by scandal, the ruling party is charismatic.
◾ The challenger is not charismatic.
◾ The holder is charismatic.
◾ The White House party has made a serious mistake in foreign policy.
◾ The White House party is successful in foreign policy.
Why did Allan Lichtman choose Kamala Harris?
Eight of the above keys are in favor of Harriswhile three are in favor of Asset.
When will Trump and Harris debate?
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will debate at 9 p.m. Tuesday night.
Contributed by Karissa Waddick
