Allan Lichtman, the historian known for accurately predicting 9 of the last 10 presidential elections, has shared his predictions for this year’s White House race. He predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win. In a video first reported by The New York TimesLichtman explained that his prediction is based on a set of thirteen “keys” or true-false questions assessing the strength and performance of the party in power in the White House.
Who is Allan Lichtman?
Before being named “Distinguished Professor” at American University In Washington, D.C., Lichtman earned a doctorate in modern American history and quantitative methods from Harvard. He has lectured internationally, written 13 books and hundreds of academic articles, and served as an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases. Lichtman is widely recognized for his political commentary and election forecasts.
What are the 13 keys to a successful election campaign?

Keys include questions such as:
- Did the White House party gain seats in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections?
- Is the incumbent president running for re-election?
- Is the White House party trying to avoid a primary election?
- Is there a third party challenger?
- Is the economy strong in the short term?
- Has long-term economic growth been as good as in the previous two terms?
- Has the White House Party Made Major Changes to National Policy?
- Are there any continuing social unrest during the mandate?
- Is the White House scandal-free and the ruling party charismatic?
- Is the challenger devoid of charisma?
- Is the incumbent charismatic?
- Has the White House Party Suffered a Major Foreign Policy Failure?
- Has the White House Party Achieved Foreign Policy Success?
Why did Allan Lichtman choose Harris?
According to Lichtman, eight of the keys are in Harris’ favor, while three are in Trump’s favor. Lichtman notes that “foreign policy is tricky and these keys could flip.” He adds: “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if the two foreign policy keys flipped, that would leave only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to win back the White House.”
As a result, Lichtman predicts Harris will win.
What time is the presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on Tuesday?
The debate will begin at 9 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday.
What channel is the presidential debate on? How to watch, stream
You can watch the debate live on ABC and stream it via ABC News Live, Disney+, and Hulu. Local networks CBS, Fox, and NBC will also broadcast the debate.
Presidential debate schedule: Will Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have more debates?
Harris’ team has agreed to hold a second debate before the November election, but details remain unclear. According to a statement from the Harris-Walz campaign, “The debate about debates is over. The Donald Trump campaign has accepted our proposal for three debates — two presidential and one vice presidential.” The statement added: “Assuming Donald Trump does indeed run on September 10, Governor Walz will face J.D. Vance on October 1, and the American people will have another chance to see Vice President Harris and Donald Trump on the debate stage in October.”
When is the vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz?
The vice presidential debate will take place on October 1, featuring Republican nominee JD Vance and Democratic nominee Tim Walz, and will be hosted by CBS News.
Contributed by: USA Today Network