Americans spent the summer eagerly awaiting two pivotpolicy statements.
The first was Taylor Swift supports Kamala Harriswho came to the top of the Democratic ticket after Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign. Swift officially endorsed the vice president moments after his debate with Donald Trumpcalling her a “gifted and determined leader.”
The second statement? It wasn’t made by another pop star. Instead, some election observers waited anxiously for a response. Allan Lichtman’s predictiona 77-year-old distinguished history professor at American University who lives in Bethesda, Maryland.
This is because Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election for decades, except for 2000. He uses a set of 13 “keys” to make his choices, ranging from economic indicators to the charisma of the candidates.
Allan Lichtman’s prediction:Historian Who Accurately Predicted 9 of the Last 10 Presidential Elections Makes His Picks for 2024
Here’s how his model works: If six or more keys are against the party in power in the White House, it is predicted to lose. Otherwise, Lichtman predicts that the party in power will win again.
Lichtman predicted earlier this month that Harris would defeat Trump, sending shockwaves through political observers and drawing widespread media coverage. He told USA TODAY he has received a bigger response than ever to his 2024 prediction.
“Perhaps because of the importance of the stakes in this election and its extraordinary nature: the sitting president resigns just before the convention, the protest candidate found guilty of 34 crimes” , Lichtman said.
“It was an avalanche.”
What are the 13 keys of the historian?Allan Lichtman’s prediction for the 2024 election is based on this formula
Why do Americans love political predictions?
Lichtman’s work is not ordinary academic research, and the professor’s publications have attracted attention For years. But is there a buttoned-up history professor who becomes a top electoral celebrity every four years?
If you search for Lichtman’s name online, video after video of the professor breaking down his “keys” and giving his take on the last election in interviews will flood your feed. You can watch him predict that Trump and his MAGA movement would beat Hillary Clinton. You can read his prediction that America would elect its first black president in 2008.
When asked about the reaction to his predictions, Lichtman smiles and pauses before saying simply that he and his family were “very taken aback.”
“I’m amazed, in a way, why they’re so interested,” Lichtman said. “They’ll find out soon enough who won or lost, why do they need to know in advance?”
But why are American politicians so attracted to all the predictions for the election year – and not just Lichtman’s? The professor said he thought “it had to do with instant gratification.”
“We live in an instant gratification society. Part of it is that,” he said. “The other reason is we live in a prediction society. It’s not just about politics. Look at sports. Sports radio is constantly giving you predictions about what’s going to happen in the next few games. Are coaches going to be fired? Who’s going to be traded and who’s not?
“It’s also entertainment. You know, who’s going to win the Oscar? When is this couple going to get divorced? You know who’s going to date who?” he asked. “It’s everywhere.”
After all, Lichtman says the “scandal” key is his favorite of the 13 keys, calling it far more interesting than weighing economic data or midterm election wins and losses.
The professor, however, said that the multitude of interviews during election years was not what he liked most about his job, nor were the lectures or other academic recognitions.
“The best part about becoming famous is when people come up to me every day and tell me they admire what I do: security guards at AU, Uber drivers, waiters and waitresses,” Lichtman said.
Yes, Allan Lichtman knows the critics
Lichtman is no stranger to criticism. answers to his choices The questions aren’t limited to the media or conversations with voters in the Washington area. Just this year, he said he’s received messages accusing him of being a “Democratic tool” or being paid by Harris.
But he’s been dealing with it for years.
Lichtman’s first prediction was in 1982, when he predicted that Ronald Reagan would be reelected. He developed the model with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a Russian seismologist who worked on understanding not elections, but earthquakes.
The professor explains that the first negative reaction he received came from his fellow forecasters.
“I committed the cardinal sin of subjectivity. Some of my keys were not just simple statistical indicators like economic growth,” he explained. “And I said, ‘No, that’s not subjectivity. That’s judgment. We’re dealing with human beings. Human beings make judgments all the time.’”
But as his work has grown, so has criticism from political operatives, journalists, pollsters and other analysts outside of academia. Those groups have long leveled similar criticisms, accusing his keys of relying on the opinions of the person deploying the model rather than on static markers.
Lichtman’s answer? He argues that his work offers specific guidelines for each key factor. For example, a strong economy in the short run doesn’t simply refer to how the person applying the method thinks Americans are feeling about the economy. Rather, the factor asks whether the economy is in recession during an election campaign.
The professor always responds regularly He’s faced negative comments online. But he says he tries to remember that over the years, people have made accusations as personal as questioning whether his hair is real. “Like my hair has anything to do with my predictions,” he said, tugging at his brown locks to prove their legitimacy.
“But I have to tell you,” Lichtman noted. “Being attacked is not the worst thing that can happen to you. You know what the worst thing is? Being ignored. And I haven’t been ignored in 20 years.”
Lichtman calls for Kamala Harris’ resignation
Virtually every major national poll has found the race within its margin of error and it is too early to make a definitive decision.
But Lichtman said earlier this month that his keys point to a historic victory for Harris this fall. That’s because she didn’t face a significant primary contest before becoming the Democratic nominee, and there’s no major third-party candidate after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. He ended his presidential campaign and Lichtman’s definition of the two economic keys to his model falls in his favor.
He also said Democrats have not faced “prolonged social unrest.” Lichtman argued that pro-Palestinian protests The tensions around Gaza that have rocked parts of the country do not meet his criteria, nor do other factors.
In 2000, Lichtman said eight of the 13 keys could be good news for Democrats, even though Al Gore ultimately lost the race to George W. Bush after a protracted fight that ended in the Supreme Court.
Lichtman raised some eyebrows in June after he said: Democrats Shouldn’t Abandon Bideneven after the president’s disastrous debate performance, which sparked an uproar and led to the end of his campaign.
But the professor said he believes Democrats risk losing two key elements as questions about Biden’s re-election campaign mount: power of exercising power and the role that primaries can play. With Biden’s withdrawal, Democrats have sacrificed the instant notoriety and other perks that have long accompanied a reelection bid.
But Harris didn’t face the typical primary process for the Democratic nomination and didn’t have to fight other politicians, so the left managed to salvage that component of Lichtman’s model.
And no, in case you were wondering, the recent Harris-Trump debate and the second assassination attempt Targeting the former president changes nothing.
“None of these fleeting events, not the debate, not the alleged assassination attempt, not JD Vance saying he made up a story about immigrants eat cats and dogs,“None of this changes the fundamentals of the election. So none of this changes my prediction.”Related integration (ID: 75293683007)
Political forecasts… and Olympic Games for seniors?
The election isn’t the only race Lichtman knows about.
He has been running for 60 years, from the age of 16 to today. He recently won his own Senior Olympics in Maryland, collecting bronze and gold medals and qualify for next year’s national competition.
His wife, Karyn Strickler, is a triathlete and the couple has a long history of playing basketball together. Lichtman said that when the two played what was supposed to be a friendly game, friends would point out that “when Allan and Karyn play one-on-one, there’s blood on the floor.”
Still, their family is very interested in politics. Strickler is the founder and chairman of Vote Climate US PAC, which “works to elect candidates who will eliminate all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,” according to its website. Lichtman regularly hosts a live YouTube show to talk politics with his son, Sam.
Lichtman gave USA TODAY one more reason why he — and Americans from coast to coast — might be so interested in political predictions.
“It’s fun. It’s interesting. I’ve been doing this for 40 years. I’m 77. I still get butterflies in my stomach every four years because I could be wrong,” he said. “Of course, I could be wrong. Anybody could be wrong.”
Contributors: Karissa Waddick, Elizabeth Beyer
