This story has been updated to add new information.
Foreign bettors think seven states with fewer than 100 electoral college votes are the most important likely to determine the presidential election.
Based on bets made on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, Vice President Kamala Harris had an advantage of only 14 votes in the electoral college over the former President Donald Trump from Wednesday. For several hours on Thursday, two states – Pennsylvania and Nevada – with a combined 25 votes had a 50% probability of victory for both candidates.
It is therefore not surprising that Polymarket betting suggests Harris’ overall probability of winning the election is just two percentage points higher than Trump’s Friday at 11 a.m. EDT. Betting on the presidential elections this cannot be done legally in the United States.
Harris and Trump’s election chances in each state
Foreign bettors estimate that Harris and Trump have at least an 86% chance of winning a combined 43 states and Washington, D.C., in the Nov. 5 election.
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Real Clear Politics, a non-partisan election siteconsider the seven states launched where Trump or Harris have less than a 70% chance of winning. Their polls also add to the mix of Minnesota and one of Nebraska’s five Electoral College votes, which oddsmakers predict will go to Harris.
2024 polling averages give Harris the edge in recent weeks
Like betting odds, polling averages synthesized by Real Clear Politics rose by about a percentage point in favor of Harris after the September 10 debate. Trump’s poll numbers remained largely unchanged.
From a betting market perspective, it’s clear why both campaigns are spending so much time and money in Pennsylvania for his 19 electoral college votes. Even betting money is shared there.
Where Oddsmakers Think the 538 Electoral College Votes Will Go
More than four out of five Electoral College votes fall firmly in either candidate’s camp, according to betting on Polymarket. When those 445 votes go to Trump or Harris, you see which states will likely swing between candidates through November.
According to Polymarket betting Friday at 11 a.m. EDT, Pennsylvania has a 51% chance of winning Harris and Nevada has a 52% chance. The day before, Trump and Harris’ chances were tied at 50%.
How Harris and Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have changed
The likelihood of Harris winning has fluctuated as much as 8 percentage points in the days following the debate between Harris and Trump, according to Polymarket. The odds of them debating again fell 5 percentage points over the past week, to 25 percent.
It’s no wonder Harris has surged into the lead since the debate, when new bets increased her chances of winning in Pennsylvania and Nevada. His chances in both states have since declined.
When is the vice presidential debate?
With around six weeks until Election Day, next week could move the betting markets again when Minnesota Governor Tim Walz debates Republican Senator JD Vance of Ohio. CBS News will host the debate Tuesday.
Betting odds did not predict Trump’s victory in 2016
Even though the numbers have turned in Harris’s favor, Trump remains only one percentage point behind. This gap is much smaller than what he faced in the betting markets during his two previous presidential campaigns, according to Betfair.
According to Betfair odds, Hillary Clinton had an 81% chance of winning on Election Day 2016. The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization. The only other time bettors failed to predict the winner: 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman beat odds of 8 to 1 to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey.
Contributor: James Powell