Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States and will defeat his Republican rival Donald Trump on election day, at least the historian and election forecaster Allan Lichtman predicted again.
Known for correctly predicting the results of the last nine out of ten presidential elections, Lichtman said during his YouTube channel As of Tuesday evening, his prediction was unchanged, despite Democratic candidate Harris’ lead dwindling in battleground states and the polls are extremely close. Lichtman’s only incorrect prediction came in 2000, when he said Democrat Al Gore would win the White House.
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“Nothing has changed to alter my prediction that I made on September 5,” Lichtman said, “in defiance of the polls.”
Lichtman fall under fire for his predictions, including with political pollster Nate Silver last month calling the American University modern history professor’s keys “totally arbitrary” in an article on X.
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He highlighted on Tuesday the 13 keys he uses to make his predictions have not changed and criticized the prevalence of surveys in the media, arguing that governing, rather than campaigning, determines who will win the race for the White House in 2024.
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“I don’t have a crystal ball, I’m not President Mike Johnson who thinks he has a pipeline to the Almighty, my system is based on history, it’s very robust, but it’s still possible , we cannot know this in “This does not mean that my prediction is invalidated”.
Lichtman’s son, Sam, interviewed his father during the 90-minute live video, in which the election prognosticator claimed that democracy itself is at stake in this year’s race for the White House.
Before every election, Lichtman said he had butterflies, but this year it’s different.
“I have a flock of crows in my stomach,” he said.
(This story has been updated with more information.)
