In the shadow of conflict between Iran and Israelmany Iranians are impatiently awaiting the outcome of the American presidential election.
In confidential and recorded conversations, as seen recently in a CNN report from Tehran two weeks ago, many Iranians said they would prefer to see Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump return to the White House .
Those interviewed said they saw him as a strong leader who could solve problems. A victory for the Democratic candidate and current vice-president Kamala HarrisOn the other hand, according to them, this would mean maintaining the status quo in American politics.
“Under enormous pressure from a deepening economic crisis, many Iranians want fundamental change,” Iranian political journalist Fariba Pajooh told DW. “A lot of them see Donald Trump as someone who could end the political system of the Islamic Republic in Iran.”
“Trump’s statements are selectively perceived not only in the United States but also in Iran,” Pajooh said. “Many Iranians believe he could overthrow the Iranian regime. Yet Trump repeatedly emphasizes that preventing an Iranian nuclear bomb is his top priority.”
Shadow of War
A month after Iran launched missile attacks against Israel, Israel counterattacked on October 25 and destroyed military targets in Iran, particularly missile production facilities, according to the Jerusalem Post.
These attacks were aimed at damaging Iranian air defenses and hindering the long-term development of ballistic missiles.
“It’s impossible to predict what will happen next,” Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, told DW.
Vatanka said the U.S. government made clear it would not support any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities shortly before the election.
“However, Israel’s counterattack was not a symbolic act,” Vatanka said. “Twenty military sites in Iran were attacked. Israel showed Iran what its military capabilities are, which is exactly what the United States wanted to see. Israel clearly communicated its message and its capabilities, and I hope that Iran has understood the message to avoid further escalation.”
The fact that Iran described the Israeli attack as minor and causing limited damage could indicate that Tehran considers this phase of escalation to be over, Vatanka said.
Iran’s nuclear program
As president in 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from the Pt5+1 nuclear deal with Iran, established in late 2015 after several years of international engagement. Trump said he would be able to negotiate a “better deal” than his predecessor, Barack Obama.
His policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran ultimately ended in failure: a year after the US withdrawal, Iran gradually began to withdraw from its obligations under the agreement. Today, Iran is believed to be closer than ever to build a nuclear bomb.
In September, Trump told reporters that the United States must reach an agreement with Iran to stop its nuclear program. However, in the face of the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, Trump came out in favor of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
“Biden’s response should have been: Target nuclear facilities first and worry about the rest afterwards,” he said at an election event in early October – directly contradicting his successor’s official line.
Israel considers Iran’s nuclear program to be an existential threat. Iran has warned that an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities would provoke a harsh response.
“To successfully carry out an attack on all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, Israel would need support from the United States,” Sina Azodi, a professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University in Washington, told DW.
Azodi said Iran’s nuclear facilities were spread across multiple sites, some with built-in underground bunkers, making it more difficult to completely destroy them.
“But shortly before the election, the US government wants to avoid getting involved in a war,” Azodi said.
When asked whether he favored system change in Iran, Trump responded on October 17 to Iranian-American podcaster Patrick Bet David: “We can’t totally intervene. Let’s be realistic, we can’t even govern ourselves.”
“I would like to see Iran succeed,” Trump said. “The only problem is they can’t have nuclear weapons.”
Peace in the Middle East?
It remains to be seen what will happen after the US presidential election. “If Kamala Harris wins the election, her government will likely try to make temporary deals with Iran,” Azodi said.
In the past, Harris has defended the nuclear deal with Iran and considered it a significant achievement of the Obama presidency.
In her role as vice president, she has supported efforts to revive the agreement over the past four years. However, these attempts failed.
“If Donald Trump wins the election, he can bring fundamental changes to US-Iran relations,” Azodi said.
“He has the potential to unite behind him all the critics of Iran within the Republican Party to reach a different deal with Iran,” he added.
In an interview last week with Saudi state broadcaster Al Arabiya, Trump said that if elected, he would include Iran in the Abraham Accords, along with at least a dozen others country.
“The Abraham Accords were concluded under my presidency,” he said. “No one thought it was possible.”
The agreements signed at the White House in September 2020 normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain – and later, Morocco.
Trump told Al Arabiya that peace in the Middle East would be possible under his leadership. Extending the deal would result in a major realignment in which Iran, the biggest regional adversary of Israel and the United States, would become an ally.
He gave no details on how he intends to achieve this major agreement, nor on the Iranian regime, faced with domestic discontent and the possibility of a escalation of conflict with Israelhas made no sign of willingness to strike a deal.
This article was translated from German
