The “keys to the White House” are being handed out, predicting that US President Joe Biden currently holds a slight lead in a hypothetical 2024 showdown against former President Donald Trump.
Allan Lichtman, an election prognosticator who has correctly predicted almost every presidential election since 1984, developed a formula used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election – and in many cases it turns out to be accurate: Fox News reports.
Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” consists of 13 true or false questions that he says are a strong indication of who will be named the winner in the fall vote.
Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if “true”, they receive a “key” and if “false”, their competitor receives the point.
So far, Biden holds five of the “keys,” while Trump was able to capture about three, Lichtman revealed to MarketWatch.
That leaves five keys still up for grabs, and enough room for the former president to take the lead before November.
According to American University, where Lichtman teaches the “keys” are: party mandate, competition, mandate, third party, short-term economics, long-term economics, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure , foreigner/military. success, charisma of the incumbent and charisma of the challenger.
Biden’s mandate automatically grants him one point, that of key number 3. While Robert F. Kennedy Jr. qualified to appear on the Utah presidential election ballot, Biden saw himself grant another “key” so as not to appear to have an important third party or party. independent primary challenge.
The Democrat also received “keys” to ensure that “real per capita economic growth during the term is equal to or greater than the average growth during the previous two terms”, as well as to implement policy changes during his term. presidency. Trump, however, got key number one, which goes to whoever’s political party has a majority in the House of Representatives — and that goes to the GOP.
Presenting Biden as lacking charisma, Lichtman gave Trump the 12th key, and perhaps another point if Biden fails to achieve “major success in foreign or military affairs.” Lichtman correctly predicted that Trump would win the 2016 election and then Biden would win the 2020 presidential election against Trump.
This article was originally published on Fox News and was reprinted with permission.