Research Information Note
| September 12, 2024
Although Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning the election have improved since her debate with former President Donald Trump, we are not changing our subjective odds for the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
What you will learn:
- The presidential race remains a toss-up, with recent polls showing narrower margins for the vice president in key states. Polls are increasingly consistent with the results of our state-level presidential model.
- Congressional polls are mixed for both parties. Democrats are well positioned to retake the House of Representatives, but control of the Senate appears to be slipping away from them, with recent polls favoring the Republican candidate in the crucial Montana race.
- Harris’ campaign has released new details about her economic agenda. We’ve updated Harris’s scenario, including a so-called billionaire minimum tax and an increase in the capital gains tax rate for high earners that is lower than President Biden’s proposal.
For more information on the 2024 US presidential election, Click here.
Related services
Share
