(Photo courtesy of WSHU). “Freestanding sign saying ‘VOTE HERE’.”
Eric Schultz
Connector stick
On November 7, 2023, Americans in several states headed to the polls to vote on Election Day. Generally speaking, odd-numbered election years in America are considered less important than presidential or midterm election years due to the small number of races in them as well as the lack of elections in Congress. However, that doesn’t mean they aren’t important. This year featured two highly competitive gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi, midterm elections for the Virginia state legislature, and ballot initiatives in Ohio focused on abortion and legalization marijuana.
Overall, the 2023 elections were a resounding victory for Democrats. They retained the governorship of Kentucky, came impressively close in Mississippi, flipped the Virginia House of Delegates, retained the Virginia Senate, and won both elections in Ohio.
Because of the salience of the abortion issue following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, Democrats had a significant electoral advantage heading into this year’s election. Millions of voters are now enthusiastic about voting in favor of abortion rights, which has also highlighted the relevance and electoral importance of the issue. John Cluverius, associate professor of political science at UMass Lowell, described the role of abortion rights in this election as “…the most important issue right now, aside from perhaps the cost of housing ” and reflected on the 2023 election results, saying, “I think there were questions ahead. in this election on the importance of abortion a year after the Dobbs decision and it is clear that not only is it very important to voters, but they are overwhelmingly pro-rights.” This could be observed in Ohio, where the constitutional right to abortion was won by 13% despite the state’s Republican leaning.
It is not uncommon for voters to cross partisan lines in gubernatorial elections and typically support governors of an opposing party if the candidate is favorable to state conditions. Cases like this can be seen in Kentucky, Mississippi and Virginia. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, won reelection by 5 percent against Attorney General Daniel Cameron.
Beshear’s popularity in the state helped create a distinction between him and the national Democratic Party despite Cameron’s best efforts, which included Beshear’s pro-choice positions. Although Democratic candidate Brandon Presley lost the Mississippi gubernatorial race, the characteristics of the state as well as its electoral performance mean that even getting as close as Presley did makes it a victory for him. Professor Cluverius described the state as “(having) a very racially polarized vote and it’s harder to vote in Mississippi than in other southern states, so you don’t have benefits in terms of high turnout from infrequent voters who might respond to the scandals surrounding Tate Reeves. »
Additionally, Democrats flipped the Virginia House of Delegates and held the Virginia Senate in what could be seen as a referendum on Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s conservative legislative ambitions. Youngkin and Virginia Republicans fought for the ability to pass more conservative legislation in the event of a flip in the Democratic-controlled Senate, but that message was contrary to both the source of Youngkin’s popularity in the State and voters’ priorities. Professor Cluverius described Youngkin’s political environment as “(being unable) to implement a conservative agenda as rigorous as Republican governors in other states, which makes him appear more moderate” and his popularity as “in some way a sort reinforced by the fact that he had to govern in other states.” in an overall more moderate manner.
Still, Youngkin campaigned on various conservative proposals, including a 15-week abortion ban. Voters tend not to cross party lines in state legislative elections as they do in gubernatorial elections. As a result, Virginia Republicans’ policy positions on many issues were viewed unfavorably by voters.
Despite this good news for Democrats, it doesn’t necessarily mean they should enter 2024 with the assumption that their victories are all but guaranteed. Off-year elections create an entirely different environment than presidential election years, and it’s important to remember that the types of voters who vote in off-year elections tend to be Democratic. As Professor Cluverius says: “They are generally more informed, they are interested in politics and electoral news. Overall, they tend to vote more frequently.
A coalition of informed and frequent voters would benefit President Biden, but they won’t be the only ones voting. Disgruntled voters who might feel more motivated to vote with Donald Trump could very well swing the election in his favor, meaning Democrats have a lot of work to do if they want to keep the White House in 2025.
Even with this dynamic and the importance of abortion, Professor Cluverius argues that it is still important to consider “…how many voters who support abortion rights will also vote for Trump versus (vote for ballot initiatives on abortion). »
