First, in each market we examine, U.S. brands experienced average declines in net purchasing consideration among surveyed adults on the order of a few points when comparing values across January and March 2025, speaking to a broad-based decline in consumer consideration of U.S. brands (green squares in chart above).
Second, while the average decline in net purchasing consideration for U.S. brands has been relatively modest to date, the magnitude of the largest declines for individual U.S. brands is non-trivial, ranging from roughly 10-25 points across tariffed markets. In all three markets, the decline is also larger for U.S. brands than for domestic ones. These findings suggest that U.S. brands are uniquely being singled out by overseas consumers amid the Trump tariffs’ rollout, as opposed to a scenario where other market dynamics (like shifting consumer confidence) were affecting all brands similarly regardless of their country of origin.
Third and finally, among all three markets we examine, variability in purchasing consideration for U.S. brands is higher than for domestic ones, as measured by the standard deviation of the two-month change in net consideration from January-March 2025 (reflecting the average distance of each brand-specific change from the mean). While not all brands are created equal when it comes to their exposure to the tariffs, heightened variability in purchasing consideration for U.S. brands relative to local ones suggests the risk can be pronounced for those that are ultimately affected, while the variability itself induces an element of added uncertainty that can pose challenges for scenario planning.
As always, correlation is not causation, and these findings should be interpreted cautiously. A variety of other brand and product attributes affect purchasing consideration for U.S. and local brands, and the industry composition of the brands we examine (as well as the number of U.S. and local brands assessed) varies by country. But the timing of the decline in purchasing consideration for U.S. brands — which closely overlaps with the latest Trump tariff salvos — is highly suggestive. Going forward, brands would be wise to identify the markets where they face the greatest exposure to declining favorability toward the United States and set contingency plans in motion given the magnitude of the potential impact for the most exposed U.S. brands.
Wealthier consumer markets pose the greatest risks for brands going forward
When it comes to particular markets worth watching in the months ahead, brands should closely monitor those where views of the United States are worsening the most as an early warning signal of potential risks.
Adding fuel to the fire, our data suggests the world’s higher-income consumer markets currently pose the greatest risks on this front. As seen in the chart below, countries with higher GDP per capita — measured in current USD using data from the World Bank Databank (2023 release) — tend to shower larger declines in net favorability toward the United States from January through March, 2025. Should the trend hold, it implies that consumers in the world’s higher-income markets will be most inclined to turn away from U.S. brands in the coming months, assuming consumers consistently tie together views of the United States and its brands (see further discussion below). With European consumer markets expected to be hit with tariffs as early as April, U.S. brands should begin preparing for potential fallout now.
