Harrisburg, Pennsylvania – The Republicans put Pennsylvania And Wisconsin Back in the Victories column during the 2024 presidential race, and they hope that this momentum will continue this year to determine whether the supreme courses of their states will retain majorities on the left or will move to a conservative control.
The result can be crucial to deciding on affairs related to abortion, electoral conflicts, electoral laws and redistribution for the Congress and the legislatures of the States.
Flied money And should eclipse the 70 million dollars combined spent on races at the Supreme Court of States two years ago.
Wisconsin’s race has drawn the attention of Elon MuskThe CEO of Spacex and Tesla who is a close ally of President Donald Trump, and which has highlighted tensions linked to Trump graces of his supporters who stormed the American Capitol January 6, 2021.
“For both sides, these races seem much more publicized than they were previously,” said JJ Abbott, who directs Commonwealth Communications, a progressive defense group in Pennsylvania.
Court of the Supreme Court of the State have become among the most expensive and fiercely disputed in recent years, given the central role of these courts in the resolution of controversial questions.
Republicans want to overthrow the courts
Republicans are optimistic after Trump’s victory in the two states in November.
The courts have played a major role there since the two states divided their governments, with governors and democratic legislative assemblies entirely or partially under republican control.
In the past two years only, liberal majorities in the high lessons of the two states have given democrats victory in cases involving the borders of Wisconsin. legislative constituencies and that of Pennsylvania Congress districts.
The victories of the Democrats or their allies in the voting law affairs are also included to spill The Wisconsin of the ballot boxes for the correspondence ballots and the Pennsylvanian guarantee can vote By provisional ballot if their correspondence vote is rejected.
Musk quoted Wisconsin’s decision, rendered last July, in a message published last week on his social platform X: “It is very important to vote republican for the Supreme Court of Wisconsin in order to prevent electoral fraud!
A tellnon -partisan audit And report By a conservative law firm, all claimed that there had been no generalized fraud in the Wisconsin in 2020, when correspondence ballot boxes were used, and that Democrat Joe Biden won the state presidential election.
The candidate supported by the Democrats in the official non -partisan race of Wisconsin quickly took advantage of the involvement of Musk to launch a fundraising argument.
The liberals also underlined the comments of the candidate supported by the Republicans earlier this month, saying that those who stormed the American Capitol never had “a fair chance” in court. Harry Dunn, a former police officer of the American Capitol who was in service during the attack, provides for press conferences on Tuesday in Wisconsin to criticize critical remarks with regard to prosecution.
In the next elections, the Democrats claim that they will present the high lessons of states as a bulwark against the conservative majority of the United States Supreme Court, the Trump administration and a congress controlled by the Republican Party.
The question of the right to abortion should play a major role this year, as it did in High court races last year And during the 2023 campaigns at the Supreme Court of States in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. These races took place the year following the cancellation of the Supreme Court of the United States. ROE C.WADE And ended almost half a century of constitutional right to abortion.
The first race for Wisconsin will test the political mood of the country
The election of the Wisconsin will take place on April 1 to replace a retired liberal judge and will decide whether the liberals or the conservatives will control a majority of 4 against 3.
Nick Ramos, executive director of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, who follows electoral expenses, said that the race could take place in one direction or the other in a state where voters granted tight victories in November to Trump, a Republican, and American senator Tammy Baldwin, a democrat.
“After the presidential election season, people in the whole country will consider Wisconsin as a barometer, as a decisive mood test of the country,” said Ramos.
The Wisconsin Democratic Party supported judge Susan Crawford of the County Dane Circuit. The County Circuit Judge of Waukesha, Brad Schimel, a former republican general prosecutor, is supported by various managers and conservative groups.
Among the important affairs looming before the courts of Wisconsin are disputes of the law of the state. Prohibition of abortion in 1849 and a 2011 law which almost finished Collective negotiation for teachers and other public sector workers.
Large expenses expected from external groups
In Pennsylvania, the general elections of November will see three democrats presenting themselves to keep their siege, bringing the majority of 5 against 2 of the Democrats into play. The three judges – Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht – face a “yes” or “no” vote to win another 10 -year term.
Affairs in the process of the courts of Pennsylvania dispute the laws limiting the use of Medicaid to cover the cost of abortions and demanding certain correspondence ballot ballots be disqualified.
In 2023, professional associations, campaign branches of political parties, Planned Parenthood, partisan defense groups, unions, lawyers, environmental organizations and the rich donors of the GOP, including Richard Uihlein and Jeffrey Yass, pushed spending to more than $ 70 million in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The Wisconsin race alone exceeded $ 51 million, breaking national spending records for a legal race.
The right to abortion was the dominant theme in this context. competitionwon by a judge supported by the Democrats whose victory gave the Liberals the majority control of the court for the first time in 15 years.
The Wisconsin race this year should cost even more, the two candidates having already collected more than what had been reported at this stage in 2023.
Schimel, in an interview last year on Wisn-Am, said that external groups “undertake to ensure that we are taking up the majority in this court” and that it was convinced that “we will have money To do the things we have ”. to win this.
He recently has spear A television advertising of $ 1.1 million bought throughout the state, marking the first expenditure in television advertising of the race. Crawford was broadcast a week later.
Expenditure exceeded $ 22 million during the 2023 competition in Pennsylvania won by the Democrat, whose campaign has concentrated on tackledecisions by the conservative majority of the United States Supreme Court.
Both camps develop a strategy to overcome the weariness of voters
The Wisconsin Democrat Stratege Melissa Baldauff said that she thought that the weariness of voters was a concern on both sides in the Supreme Court race, the elections taking place only a few months after the State was flooded TV advertisements, appearances of candidates, directors and telephone calls during the presidential race. .
The best strategy is for their candidate to browse the state and meet the voters directly, said Baldauff.
“You can never underestimate the power to move, talk to people and literally meet them where they are,” she said.
Michelle McFall, president of the Democratic Party in the County of Westmoreland in Pennsylvania, said that the next jobs on position dominated discussions at a recent meeting of the State Democratic Party.
She declared that the Democrats feared that their voters will be distracted by Trump’s actions as president – “because this is what we do” – and that parties of the parties should remain focused on the defense of their judicial majority.
They must redouble their efforts to reach urban and rural voters and learn from the winning campaign of Trump to use new and unconventional routes to send their message, said McFall.
The Republicans believe that it is too early to know how much money will be available to stimulate a possible campaign aimed at contesting the races to keeping in power. The success of a “no” campaign could depend on the ability of the Republican party to mobilize high -level support.
“A question,” said Charlie Gerow, a member of the Republican Party, “is what President Trump’s influence will be on this issue.”
Bauer reported from Madison, Wisconsin.
