Recent research suggests a growing gender gap in political leanings around the world. In Generation Z, the youngest voting generation, young women are becoming more progressive than men.
Young Australian women are also moving significantly towards the political left – as are young Australian men, although at a relatively slower rate.
I analyzed data from the Australian Election Study, covering the period 1996 to 2022, to find out what’s going on.
Just 24.3% of Millennials born between 1980 and 1994 – 21.9% of men and 25.7% of women – said they voted for the Coalition in 2022, representing the lowest level of support for either or the other major party among young people in the Coalition’s 35-year history. the Australian Election Study.
A slightly higher proportion of Gen Z voted for the Coalition: 24.6%, with a gender breakdown of 34.0% men and 19.8% women.
(These numbers will vary slightly depending on exact generational definitions – birth year boundaries – and whether non-voters are excluded from the analysis.)
I found that Australian millennial and Gen Z men are more conservative than their female counterparts, but are more progressive than men from previous generations at the same life stage. Regardless of gender, these generations also report being less present in the political center than previous ones.
This goes against trends reported in most countries, where women have moved to the left “while men remain stationary”. In fact, in some countries like Germany, there are signs that young men are moving to the right.
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A gender gap in youth politics globally
A considerable gender gap has widened globally over the past six years, after decades of a roughly equal ideological split. Young American women aged 18 to 30 are now 30 percentage points more liberal than their male peers, according to US Gallup data.
Germany shows a similar gap of 30 points, while the United Kingdom sees a gap of 25 points.
In 2022, almost half of Poles aged 18 to 21 supported the far-right Confederation party, compared to only a sixth of women in this age group. In Germany, there are signs that young men under 30 are moving towards the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)), actively opposing immigration more than their elders.
Shawn Thew/AAP
This trend is also reflected beyond the West. This is evident in China, Tunisia and South Korea – where, in the 2022 elections, young men supported the right-wing People Power party and young women supported the Liberal Democratic Party.
In all of these cases, the dramatic divide is either exclusive to the youngest generation or much more pronounced than the gender gap in older generations.
How I arrived at my discoveries
After each federal election, the Australian Election Study asks respondents to place themselves on an 11-point ideological scale, where 0 is far left, 10 is far right, and 5 is often interpreted as neither left nor the right (the political center).
I analyzed this data, using six generational categories.
They were:
- War Generation (born in the 1920s and came of age during World War II – 1,305 participants)
- Builders (born between 1930 and before the end of the Second World War – 4,133 participants)
- Postwar Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1960 – 6,651 participants)
- Generation X (born between 1961 and 1979 – 5,229 participants)
- Millennials or generation Y (born between 1980 and 1994 – 1,672 participants)
- Generation Z (born after 1994 – a smaller size of 264 participants, requiring caution in statistical conclusions).
A person’s position on the ideological scale is influenced by their age, gender and education.
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Women’s movement to the left
In the 2022 Australian election, the Coalition received its lowest share of the female vote – only 32%. Conversely, the Labor Party attracts more women than men (although to a lesser extent).
The reasons include a sharp rise in feminist views following the global #MeToo movement, the Liberal government’s poor response to sexual assault complaints, and the mistreatment of women within the Liberal Party and Parliament.
This reflects the overall analysis reported by The Financial Times: The #MeToo movement has enabled young women around the world to embrace fiercely feminist values, thereby influencing their political perspectives.
But the Coalition loss of support in women is not isolated from the 2022 elections: this has been happening since the early 2000s.
Men are also moving to the left – but in fewer numbers
My analysis showed that women are significantly more likely to be progressive than men. Over generations and political opinions, the gender gap has widened.
The newest generation, Generation Z, appears to be the most progressive, with women in particular clearly preferring the left and moving to the center in decreasing numbers.
However, even though Gen Z has more men than women on the right, it has fewer men on the right than any other generation – so it would be wrong to say that our young men are rushing to the right, as in South Korea or Germany.
Australian data reflects international trends, with a slight difference. Over the past decades and over generations, Australians have moved away from the right and the left. At the same time, they have moved away from the center (even if this is more pronounced for women).
Despite the gender gap, they are heading in the same direction.
In exploring the connection between gender and generation, I adapted my analysis to see what happened when other factors that influence political leanings were taken into account, such as education level, marital status and accession to property.
Gender remains a significant influence, although this varies across generations, with some generations more gender divided than others.
Higher education was also important. Women with higher education are likely to be more progressive than those without. The same goes for men, although to a lesser extent.
Married, home-owning men and women hold more conservative political views. Income itself is neither substantial nor significant in its effect.
Implications for Australian policy
The gender gap, along with many other factors, is reshaping the way young Australians engage in politics. Recognizing and addressing this divide is an essential step towards promoting an inclusive and representative democracy.
As better-educated young women become a formidable force in shaping the political landscape, political parties risk losing touch with this influential segment if they fail to address gender-specific issues, such as those related to to education, healthcare, childcare and equality in the workplace.
The Coalition is definitely on alert, but all political parties must adapt their strategies to align with changing demographics.
The movement towards the left will perhaps not stop at the center-left parties, but will continue further to the left, towards the Greens for example. Generational replacement will not necessarily continue to favor Labor if its party’s positions do not speak to young women in the next election.
Note: I incorrectly combine “sex” and “gender” in my analyzes because survey research has not yet adequately recognized and captured the gender diversity that exists in our society. However, I note that it is impossible to truly understand the gender gap (and the progressive direction of youth trends) in politics if we continue to discuss the “modern” gender gap while always defining “traditionally” gender as a binary concept.
Correction: This article originally stated that 29.8% of Gen Z women voted for the Coalition, but the correct figure is 19.8%.
