WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden’s top aides bluntly told lawmakers in a private meeting Wednesday that if Congress does not authorize additional military aid to Ukraine in the coming days, Russia could win the war within weeks — months at best, according to two people familiar with the meeting.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told lawmakers Ukraine would be short some air defense and artillery capabilities in the coming weeks, according to sources close to the meeting.
The grim assessment, which one White House official called “incredibly bleak,” came as the future of aid to Ukraine has never been more uncertain. It also comes as White House officials more and more alarmed to the prospect that Biden cannot keep his promise that the United States will be there for kyiv “as long as it takes.”
At Wednesday’s White House meeting, Sullivan and Haines gave top congressional leaders a specific timetable for when Ukraine’s key military assets will be significantly depleted, as well as a detailed assessment of the current dynamics on the battlefield, the two people familiar with the meeting said. said.
Although Sullivan did not predict an imminent Russian victory, a White House official said, he emphasized that Ukraine’s position would become more difficult over the course of the year by proposing specific date ranges for which the country will find itself short of various capacities in the short term.
The president’s aides told lawmakers that the lack of aid would affect more than just Ukraine and could prompt other countries that depend on the United States, including Japan and South Korea, to rethink their alliances, according to sources close to the meeting. Their message, these people said, was that a Russian victory simply because the United States couldn’t cope “would have repercussions around the world.”
The bipartisan group of congressional leaders at the meeting agreed that aid to Ukraine is a national security priority, but acknowledged that there are disagreements on how to proceed legislatively, they said. declared these people.
Aid to Ukraine, blocked in Congress for months, is part of legislation that also provides funding for border security between Israel, Taiwan and the United States. In October, Biden asked an additional $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine, part of which would be used to replenish U.S. stockpiles. Congress has already authorized about $75 billion in aid to Ukraine.
For weeks last fall, White House officials expressed confidence that Congress would pass more aid, noting that the majority of Republicans and Democrats supported it. But resistance from some congressional Republicans blocked the bill, and negotiations by a bipartisan trio in the Senate over policy changes at the southern border, a top priority for Republicans, were difficult.
Although outstanding questions regarding the border portion of the bill remain, Senate leaders both sides expressed optimism this week that the upper house could soon take up the bill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters after the White House meeting that he rated the chances of a deal at “more than half,” and later said they could begin to deal with the bill next week.
The bill’s fate in the House is much more uncertain.
Biden has warned for months, including in an address to the nation from the Oval Office, that a lack of new aid would be disastrous for Ukraine and the world order as a whole. The White House said last month that it had provided Ukraine with the last available U.S. funds, a statement that drew skepticism from some lawmakers, including those who support aid to Ukraine.
Sullivan and Haines predicted that without more U.S. military aid, Ukrainian forces could only continue fighting the Russians for weeks or even months, according to people familiar with the meeting. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been making battlefield decisions based on Ukraine’s vulnerabilities since the Biden administration said last month it had provided Kiev with the last authorized U.S. military assistance, an official said from the White House.
For example, Sullivan and Haines told lawmakers that it is no coincidence that Putin launched his largest air attack since the war began in February 2022 after Congress went home last month without approving a additional help, according to people familiar with the meeting.
The president’s aides argued that Ukraine was much more vulnerable to attacks from Moscow while Congress was at a standstill, these sources said.
The two people familiar with Wednesday’s meeting said administration officials provided more details on the current and future U.S. assessment of Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – who has visited Washington twice in the past five months to personally advocate for the aid – has taken an unusually low-key stance as military aid to his country remains uncertain. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week, the usually animated Zelensky appeared more reserved and did not make a public appeal for help, according to a senior administration official.
It’s a change welcomed by the Biden administration, the official said, because some officials felt Zelenskyy had overstated his position in the past by applying too much pressure on Congress.
In Davos, Secretary of State Antony Blinken sought to reassure Zelensky that there is still broad bipartisan support in Congress to provide funding to Ukraine and said officials were working on the process, said the senior administration official.
On Friday, Biden warned that unrest could spread to Europe if Congress fails to pass additional aid to Ukraine.
“If we withdraw and Russia is able to sustain its assault and bring down Ukraine, what do you think will happen in the Balkan countries?” » Biden said during an event with US mayors. “It changes the dynamic.”
