Standing in front of a few dozen supporters in a parking lot in Strip Mall in Ocala, Florida, Monday evening, the Democratic candidate of the Congress Josh Weil made a prediction.
The professor of mathematics of the public school said that in less than 24 hours, he was going to make history by overthrowing a firmly republican congress seat – helping to snatch control of the House of Republicans.
“Their program in 2025 stops here,” he promised, against President Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s efforts to reduce government services and staff.
An hour earlier, during a meeting of the town hall, Randy Fine, his republican opponent during Tuesday’s special elections, had a similar message – although he designed it as a warning, not a promise.
“Democrats are crazy,” he said. “They will do everything you need to stop Donald Trump’s agenda.”
Voters in half east of the center of Florida, from Ocala to cities north of Daytona beach, go to the polls to fill the vacant seat by Michael Waltz, chosen by Trump to be a national security advisor. Waltz recently sparked media frenzy after inadvertently adding a leading journalist to a high -level group group on American strikes in Yemen.
That Waltz’s work is now in danger is only one of the reasons why the Tuesday competition for one of the 435 seats of the house is now a national history.
The other is that Weil, despite the race in a district that Trump carried by more than 30 points last November, could well win. And if he does it, the Democrats would approach a majority of the house closely divided.
Winning or losing, the race could also serve as a barometer for the motivation of voters while Trump begins his second term – and offer advice on the political landscape before the elections of next year congress.
This is one of the two special elections in Florida on Tuesday. The other, in the Panhandle region of Florida, will determine a replacement of Matt Gaetz, the member of the Congress of Firebrand Trump originally chosen to be a prosecutor general before retiring under a cloud of sexual misconduct and allegations of ethics. A republican is largely supposed to win.
But this is not the case here. Weil collected about $ 10 million in campaign donations, eclipping the $ 1 million reported by a fine, a senator from the state of Florida.
According to a recent public opinion investigation, Weil narrowly follows. An internal survey of a respected republican company would have shown Weil in advance by 3.
This is enough to cause more than anxiety in the republican ranks.
“There is no excuse for a republican not to win this race,” said Randy Ross, an activist conservative based in Florida who campaigned there for Trump in 2016 and 2024. “The only excuse that can be made is that the Republicans were not excited and did not go out to vote.”
Mr. Ross added that republican voters must understand that Fine will support Trump’s agenda at the Congress – and Weil will not.
To this end, some of the heaviest festive strikers intervened to help. Last Thursday, Trump joined the Republican candidate at two telephone events. Monday evening, the Florida Congress Byron Donalds and the conservative commentator Ben Shapiro organized their own event.
“Donald Trump’s agenda is suspended by a thread,” said Shapiro. “This is a neighborhood that simply cannot fall into democratic hands.”
Multi-Millionaire Musk Tech, a close ally of Trump, could campaign in person for a highly contested Supreme Court of Wisconsin, but its political committee has led more than $ 75,000 to support Fine in recent days. Other conservative groups have followed suit, helping to improve the rules of the financial game.
A particular concern for the party is that special elections take place during periods of lower political engagement and generally imply only the only race in question. They often bow to the party with the most enthusiasm, according to Mr. Ross. For the Republicans, a democratic demonstration of force on Tuesday would be disturbing.
“You cannot go only on name recognition during a special election,” he said. “You have to hunt people to vote for you.”
Republican nervousness is the result of simple mathematics in the House of Representatives. With a majority of 218 to 213 in the chamber of 435 seats, the party cannot afford to lose elections winning – not to mention those which should be a slam from.
Although Weil victory would not be enough to reverse control of the room, two of the currently vacant seats are in democratic districts in complete safety. If the results of these special elections take place as planned, the Democrats are about to control.
This could explain why the president announced on Friday that it was Remove her choice of deputy from New York Elise Stefanik To be an American ambassador to the United Nations, although she has almost officially canceled her office. Weil victory on Tuesday would mean that the Republicans could not afford to lose a New York election to replace Stefanik.
Even before Tuesday’s ballot, Democrats and Republicans jockey to supervise the results in the best light for their party.
The conservatives have minimized the national implications of the race and blamed fine, which was accused of having led a dull campaign and of winning the victory for acquired.
“It is the reflection of the candidate who manages the race,” said the Republican governor of Florida, Ron Desantis, about the apparent underperformance of Fine.
Meanwhile, the Democrats declare a victory – at least, the moral variety.
“These are races that should not, in ordinary circumstances, be on the political radar of anyone,” said the chief of the Democrat minority House House Jeffries last Monday. “The American people do not buy what the Republicans sell.”
This feeling was taken up by many supporters of Weil on Monday evening in Ocala on Monday evening, even if the candidate himself told the BBC that he would earn eight points.
“If we lose but approach, the moderate republicans could take note,” said Buddy Oswald, lawyer and educator. If they feared that their party could lose a seat safely, he added, maybe they would feel the heat and would be more ready to break with the president.
Eight years ago, the day after Trump’s superb presidential victory in 2016, the Democrats asked for comfort in special electoral races through the map. They succeeded in some stunning, including a victory by the Senate of Doug Jones in a deeply conservative Alabama. In other races, such as an offer from Jon Ossoff in a suburban district of Atlanta, the Democrat has remained short.
These races presumed a high level of democratic enthusiasm which led to a mid-term wave the following year, when the party won 39 seats by taking over the House of Representatives and by putting a decisive end to the legislative agenda of the first mandate of Trump.
The Republicans, with convincing victories on Tuesday, want to stifle all luck that history is repeated.
Democrats, engaged in a sometimes acrimonious debate on political strategy and priorities, would like Florida would bring them back to the column of victories – or at least give them hope for the better days to come.
