Six swing states determined to decide US elections

About 240 million people are eligible to vote in this year’s U.S. elections, but only a relatively small number of them are likely to decide the question of who becomes the next president.

Experts believe there are only a handful of states likely to be won by either Democratic President Joe Biden or his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump.

Six of them – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – appear to be on a knife’s edge and likely hold the key to determining who takes the White House.

The two parties are therefore leading an intensive campaign to win over undecided voters in these Länder.

Mr. Biden won the presidency in 2020 with the support of the Grand Canyon State, which narrowly voted to support a Democratic candidate for the first time since the 1990s.

The state borders Mexico for hundreds of miles and has become a focal point in the national debate over immigration. Arrivals at the US border reached record levels while Mr Biden was in office, posing a major electoral problem for him. Border crossings have declined in recent months, but he has hardened his stance and plans to close borders when crossings increase.

Mr. Trump has repeatedly attacked his rival’s record immigrationand pledged to carry out “the largest deportation operation” in US history if he regains the presidency.

Arizona was also the scene of a bitter dispute over access to abortion, after state Republicans attempted to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban on termination of pregnancies. It’s become an explosive issue nationally since 2022, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a landmark ruling that granted women the constitutional right to abortion.

Our list of swing states closely matches the list of places where Trump-backed Republican officials tried to thwart Mr. Biden’s victory in the 2020 election. In Georgia, alleged election interference landed Mr. Trump in one of his four criminal cases.

He and 18 others are accused of conspiring to overturn his narrow defeat to Mr. Biden in the state. He denies any wrongdoing and it appears increasingly unlikely that the case will be heard in court before the election.

Regardless, it remains to be seen whether Mr. Trump’s legal troubles will hurt him at the polls. We may soon find out, now that his secret trial has ended with a guilty verdict.

At 33%, Georgia has one of the highest proportions of African Americans in its population in the country, and this demographic group is believed to have been instrumental in Mr. Biden’s flip of the state in 2020. However, disillusionment has been reported among Americans. black voterswith some saying not enough has been done to combat racial injustice or improve the economy.

The Great Lakes State chose the winning candidate in the last two presidential elections. Although he supported Mr. Biden in 2020, he became the symbol of a nationwide backlash over the president’s support for Israel during that country’s 2020 war. Gaza.

In Michigan’s Democratic primary in February, more than 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballots, after a campaign by activists who wanted the U.S. government to support a ceasefire in Gaza and ends its military aid to Israel.

Notably, Michigan has the largest proportion of Arab-Americans — a demographic whose support for Mr. Biden appears under threat.

Mr. Trump stressed the importance of the state in his potential path to victory. Commenting on events in the Middle East, he called on Israel to end its campaign against Hamas in Gaza, but “to end it quickly”.

The Silver State voted Democratic in the last election, but there are signs of a possible Republican turnaround. Recent averages published by the polling company 538 indicate that Mr. Trump enjoys a good lead over Mr. Biden. Both men vie for important state victory Latino population.

Despite the fact that the United States economy Although Nevada has seen strong growth and job creation since Mr. Biden took over the presidency, the post-Covid recovery has been slower in Nevada than elsewhere.

At 5.1 percent, the state has the highest unemployment rate in the country, after California and the District of Columbia, according to the latest U.S. government statistics.

If Mr. Trump returns to power, he has pledged to return to a smaller agenda. taxes at all levels and fewer regulations.

Pennsylvanians are far from alone among Americans in feeling cost of living pressures due to inflation. But food prices have risen faster in their state than any other, according to market information provider Datasembly.

The BBC recently reported how people were struggling to get by in Erie – a benchmark county for the rest of Pennsylvania, where as many as one in eight people are considered “food insecure.”

The state proved pivotal in the 2020 election, supporting Mr. Biden in his successful bid for the White House. He has a deep emotional connection to the working-class town of Scranton, where he grew up.

High inflation could hurt Mr Biden in the United States, as polls suggest it gives voters an unfavorable view of the economy.

Mr. Trump sought to attack his opponent over the persistence of high prices. But he has his own challenges in Pennsylvania after a relatively strong performance by his Republican rival Nikki Haley.

The Badger State also chose the winning presidential candidate in 2016 and 2020, by a margin of just over 20,000 votes each time.

Experts have suggested that it is in marginal states like these that impact could be made third party candidates who are campaigning against the policies of the two major candidates.

Polls have indicated that a significant show of support for an independent such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – who is fighting to be registered to vote in Wisconsin and other states – could hurt the vote count for M .Biden or Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump described the state as “really important…if we win Wisconsin, we win everything.” The summer Republican National Convention will be held in the city of Milwaukee.

Mr. Biden recently pointed to a new Microsoft data center heading to Wisconsin as evidence of how it was creating new jobs; arguing that his predecessor had been unable to deliver on his promises.