While President Trump looks north and repeatedly presses his case to absorb Canada as “51st state“, Politically in mind democrats who are otherwise indignant by almost all the rest of his program find themselves considering a potential electoral boon if this happens.
Little to Washington take the perspective seriously, of course. Canada clearly said it had no interest in joining the United States, and Trump seems unlikely to send the 82nd airborne division to force the issue. But if the idea calls upon the grandiose sense of Mr. Trump of himself as a historical figure of construction of the Empire, this could also reduce the prospects of his own party.
Canada, a socialized healthcare land, friendly immigration policies and a commitment to protect the environment, is not exactly the territory of Maga, after all. To make it a state, according to some first studies on popular opinions and voting models, would almost surely cost the Republicans control of the Chamber, the reduction of their majority in the Senate and would make them more difficult for them to win the White House during Next elections.
“I cannot believe that I say that, but I firmly agree with Donald Trump,” said former representative Steve Israel of New York, who managed the campaign committee of the Democrat Congress. “Canada is largely to the left of the center, and making it the 51st state means more democrats at the congress and votes of electoral colleges, not to mention universal health care and fighting climate change.”
That Trump understands that Canada’s absorption could be self -destructive for the Republican Party is not clear. He has never been particularly committed by the party building, nor demonstrated many concerns about what is happening politically after leaving his duties. During last year’s campaign, he told Christian supporters that “You will no longer have to voteAfter choosing it in November.
“Of course, if that should happen, it would be a political boon for the Democrats,” said Douglas Heye, a long -standing republican strategist. “But that doesn’t even really be part of the discussion. Trump depends on the noisy noises that get a reaction – and his recorder record there. »»
Indeed, Mr. Trump’s speech on the annex of Canada seems to be a way to drag his neighbors in the North as part of his pressure for trade and other concessions. He managed to get under their skin. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada told a group of business leaders in comments who had disclosed that he had not considered him a joke but in fact “A real thing. “”
The 13 provincial and territorial ministers of Canada went to Washington last week as part of a joint mission to strengthen relations of Canada-US and defuse the trade war that Trump began. After the meeting, James Blair, an assistant white house chief of the White House, said online that, as regards Mr. Trump’s comments on Canada, becoming the 51st state, the officials should “Take what he says to his nominal value. “”
But the notion of Canada as a state, so far -fetched and unlikely, has intrigued the political class and was the source of the living room games in Washington. With 40 million people and 3.8 million square miles, Canada would instantly become the largest and most populated state of the Union, beating the other 50 states combined in the earthly mass and at the head of California in the population.
Canada would also be even more blue than politically California, judging by past trends. Almost two -thirds of Canadians, 64%, surveyers told Kamala Harris when only 21% said they would have supported Trump, According to a survey by the Leger survey company.
If Canada had 55 votes from electoral colleges on the basis of its population, this would have brought Mrs. Harris from 226 to 281. Mr. Trump would still have won with 312 votes from the electoral college. But such a change would leave less margin for future Republicans who would start each race assuming 55 additional electoral college votes in the democratic base.
The biggest impact would be on the house. John A. Tures, professor of political science at the Lagrange College in Georgia, analyzed what would mean if the 10 Canadian provinces were collectively brought while the three Canadian territories were treated by the United States because it treats its own territories like the American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico and the American Virgin Islands, who have no votes for the president.
In this case, the Republicans would lose their close majority in the Chamber, according to the calculations of Mr. Tures, which were based on the assumption that the number of seats would be increased to accommodate the new population, as was done regularly in the 19th century.
Instead of Win 220 to 215As they did in November, the Republicans would have given the hammer to the Democrats, which would have a majority of 246 to 234. The figures would be different if the current size of the room was maintained and that its 435 seats are simply redistributed according to of the population, as was done during the last century, but the trend would be similar.
If Canada was admitted as a single state, as Mr. Trump seems to envisage, then his two seats in the Senate would probably go among Democrats. The current majority of Republicans 53 to 47 would be reduced to 53 to 49, not enough to change the control of the room but enough to make Trump more difficult to govern.
If each of the Canadian provinces was admitted as separate states, then Mr. Tures thought that five new seats in the Senate would go to the Republicans of the most conservative regions of Canada (two of Alberta, two of Saskatchewan and one of Manitoba) and 15 of the other provinces would go to democrats, reversing control.
Its forecasts, of course, are founded by assuming that each vote of the Conservative party in Canada would go to the Republicans of Mr. Trump and that the Democrats could build a coalition of several Canadian parties on the left of the Conservatives, both of whom are logical if not Some inferences. But that gives an idea of how the political landscape would change in the United States.
M. Tures, who wrote on a previous version of his analysissaid he had obtained comments since Canadians. “They are not satisfied with the tactics and threats of Trump, but some joked by saying that they would appreciate the opportunity to take over our politics by giving votes to the Democratic Party to make us more, politically,” -It declared.
It could however become even more complicated. Douglas B. Sosnik, a long -standing democrat strategist, said that it was possible that Quebec, which has already got closer to Canada’s secession in recent decades, would be so disturbed during the annexation by the United States that it would finally declare its independence.
“The Democrats would control the province of Vancouver and Ontario, but that’s all with the rest of what remains of Canada supporting the Republicans,” he said.
None of the provinces really want to join the United States, however. Among all Canadian adults, only 15% support being part of their southern neighbor, while 77% oppose it, according to A Yougov survey. Even among the conservatives, only 23% promote the idea, while 73% do not.
So, on the basis of this, at least, Mr. Trump should not make his hopes – and neither do Democrats. But that doesn’t mean they can’t dream.
“Canada is blue,” said Israel. “We are going to have all the help that President Trump wishes to bring us.”
