The U.S. government is preparing for its adversaries to step up their efforts to influence American voters next year. Russia has huge stakes in the presidential election. China appears ready to support a more aggressive campaign. Other countries, such as Iran, may again attempt to sow division in the United States.
As Washington considers the 2024 vote, US intelligence agencies released a report last week on the 2022 midterm elections — a document which gives us some indications about what could happen.
Spy agencies concluded that Russia favored Trump in 2016. What will it be in 2024?
Russia appears to be paying close attention to the elections, as its war in Ukraine soon enters its third year.
Former President Donald J. Trump, the leading Republican candidate, has expressed skepticism about funding Ukraine. President Biden argued that helping Ukraine was in America’s interest.
Although Ukraine still enjoys bipartisan support, Russia is working to weaken Democrats to prevent the United States from providing more aid in coming years.
In 2022, according to the intelligence report, Russia attempted to denigrate Democrats, including by amplifying corruption allegations from Mr. Biden’s family, largely due to his administration’s support for Ukraine.
“Moscow blames the US president for forging a unified Western alliance and being responsible for continuing kyiv’s pro-Western trajectory,” the report said.
Russia was distracted by its war in 2022, officials said, but the report explains how the fighting was linked to its efforts to influence U.S. policy. Russia, the report said, considered delaying its withdrawal from the southern Kherson region to avoid giving Ukraine’s supporters in the United States “a perceived victory before the elections.”
Russia finally announced its withdrawal a day after the elections.
As Republican opposition to funding Ukraine grows, officials say Moscow will likely try to intervene even more in 2024.
Has China learned from Russia?
While Russia has long attempted to influence U.S. policy debates on controversial issues, China has traditionally focused on narrower issues, opposing local politicians who take positions on Tibet, Taiwan or other similar questions. U.S. officials say that could be about to change.
It’s unclear what China will do or which side it will take in 2024. But the report suggests that Chinese leaders viewed the 2022 election as an opportunity to portray the U.S. model as chaotic.
As President Xi Jinping strengthens his grip on politics and the economy, ideological differences between the United States and China have deepened. In this context, Chinese leaders are becoming more interested in influence campaigns that amplify social divisions in the United States, which have long been the focus of Russian operations.
We don’t really know how far the Chinese will go. But U.S. intelligence agencies appear to know more than they are revealing. The report contains one of those frustrating redactions. He announces that Chinese leaders have “paid new attention to” and then obscures the subject of the sentence.
What role could artificial intelligence play?
China has already started experimenting with artificial intelligence in its influence campaigns. Industry experts say new technologies will make it easier for foreign countries to imitate English speakers and more quickly generate messages that amplify existing divisions.
But government officials are more concerned that artificial intelligence technologies could be used to create hyperrealistic — but fake — videos, the kind of misinformation that could quickly wreak havoc.
Are countries still trying to hack local government computer systems?
They are not. This is good news in the latest intelligence assessment.
The extreme decentralization of the American electoral system constitutes its best defense. Russian hackers targeted voting systems in 2016. But foreign countries now believe it is far too difficult to significantly influence vote counts by hacking into local government computer networks.
As a result, various foreign powers have increased their efforts to influence the elections.
Beyond China and Russia
Besides China and Russia, the report looks at other countries interested in influencing the American vote.
Cuba, hoping the United States will drop sanctions against its government, has tried to influence some congressional and gubernatorial elections in 2022, the report said. Although the details were redacted, the report said Havana officials focused on Florida politicians because Miami’s Cuban-American community has outsized influence on policy toward Cuba. Iran has supported several inauthentic campaigns on Twitter and other social media platforms aimed at promoting progressive candidates. Some of these fake accounts have also amplified pro-Palestinian sentiment.
