Remembering what the world was like before Donald Trump became president of the United States in January 2017 paints a stark picture. At that time, the idea that Beijing posed a threat to global security was not widespread in Washington. Imposing customs duties on European imports seemed inconceivable. And controls on technology exports – which had gradually fallen out of favor since the end of the Cold War – were the preserve of a small niche of policy enthusiasts.
For better or worse, there is no denying that Trump has changed the world, particularly when it comes to U.S.-China relations.
Given Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric toward Beijing, including his promise to step up the US-China trade war – it is easy to believe that Chinese leaders would prefer outgoing US President Joe Biden to Trump, who will likely be the Republican Party nominee.
Yet this view is likely short-sighted and overshadows the bigger picture. In all likelihood, China supports Trump.
Beijing knows there is no hope of improving its relations with Washington, whether under Trump, Biden or any other US president. From the perspective of Beijing’s long game vis-à-vis the West, Trump’s return to the White House may well prove to be in China’s favor, at least in the economic sphere. Here are five reasons why.
1. Trump would increase divisions between the United States and Europe.
“I think the European Union is an enemy, because of what it does to us in terms of trade.” (Trump in July 2018)
In December 2023, the Financial Times reported that Chinese intelligence services had been using Frank Creyelman, a former Belgian senator, as an asset for years. His Chinese master nicely summarized the goal of the relationship: “Our goal is to divide the US-European relationship. »
Beijing’s reasoning is simple: cementing mistrust between the United States and Europe is the best way to prevent the emergence of transatlantic policies harmful to Chinese interests, such as joint export controls. From this point of view, a second Trump presidency would play into China’s hands. ‘I think the European Union is an enemy of what it’s doing to us on trade,’ Trump said in 2018and there is no indication that he has changed his mind.
If elected, Trump likely won’t be able to resist restarting trade wars with Europe, for example by following through on his promise to impose 10% tariffs across the board. A trade battle, in turn, would likely end U.S.-EU cooperation on measures that could harm Chinese interests. Of course, Trump’s recent decision promise Imposing a minimum 60% tariff on Chinese imports would also be painful for Beijing. But overall, Beijing may assume that paying such a price is worth it if the price is a schism between the US and EU.
2. Trump could reverse course on sanctions against Russia.
“They have sanctions against Russia. Let’s see if we can make good deals with Russia.” (January 2017)
For all the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policy, one constant has been his clear tendency to move closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin. This was particularly evident during a US-Russian summit in Finland in 2018, when Trump suggested he trusted Putin more than its own intelligence services. If his admiration for Putin remains intact, Trump could well decide to lift sanctions against Russia as soon as he takes office, to the great dismay of European countries.
Such a situation would not only delight Moscow, but also work in favor of Beijing. Despite declarations of unlimited friendship between Russia and China, the reality is that Chinese companies are cautious in their dealings with Russia. Even though Chinese exports to Russia have jumped up since 2022, this figure has been starting from a low level, and so far there is little evidence that Chinese companies are in a hurry to invest in Russia.
This is due to fears that Washington could impose secondary sanctions against Moscow, forcing companies around the world to choose between their American and Russian customers. For most Chinese companies, sticking to the US market would be a no-brainer in such a scenario. As a result, Chinese companies have little interest in developing relationships with Russian companies that they may soon have to abandon. If Trump lifts sanctions against Moscow, this problem would be solved for Chinese companies.
3. Trump would encourage China to promote alternative financial mechanisms.
“China wants to replace (the US dollar) with the yuan, and that was unthinkable for us. Unthinkable. This would never have happened. Now people are thinking about it. (August 2023)
China has long sought to protect itself from U.S. sanctions, whether through dedollarization, creating alternatives to the Western-controlled SWIFT global banking system, or planning a digital yuan to settle cross-border payments. However, China cannot implement this strategy alone: For its financial structures to replace established Western ones, Beijing’s trading partners must also opt for the non-Western alternative. The path to get there will be steep; Most companies and banks see no need to abandon SWIFT, which works perfectly well, to try a much smaller Chinese alternative.
A second Trump presidency could change this reasoning. The case of Russian aluminum producer Rusal in 2018 illustrates why: after imposing sanctions on the company without any warning, the Trump administration had to reverse course and lift the sanctions in a hurry after realizing that the measures had massive global repercussions.
The moral of the story was clear: Under Trump, anything can happen – and anyone can be subject to sanctions without warning. As a result, many countries would seek to preemptively protect themselves against such measures if Trump returns to the White House. At this stage, the best way to achieve this is through Beijing’s alternative financial mechanisms. This would be another victory for China.
4. A Trump victory would increase China’s dominance over the supply of essential materials from emerging countries.
“Why are we bringing all these people here from shitty countries? » (January 2018)
A global battle influence pits Western economies against China to gain market access raw materials which will be crucial for the green energy transition, such as cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium and nickel. So far, this battle is fought mainly in resource-rich emerging economies, such as Bolivia, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea and Indonesia. China is by far the undisputed leader in this race, controlling around 50 to 70 percent of oil refining. global lithium supplyFor example.
A second Trump presidency would do little to win over developing economies – something Trump once had collectively disparaged as “shithole countries” – to partner with Washington for the supply of essential raw materials. Many mineral-rich states reportedly fear that Trump’s promises have little value, as his sudden withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 showed.
Furthermore, Trump’s disdain for developing economies, likely immigration restrictions and incendiary rhetoric about Islam won’t exactly break the ice with African, Southeast Asian or South American leaders. China would welcome this and continue to promote its interests in emerging economies by presenting itself as the adult in the room, a reliable partner who does not mix business and politics.
5. China would benefit from US controls on clean technology exports.
“The concept of global warming was created by China in an attempt to make American manufacturing uncompetitive. » (November 2012)
Export restrictions are a key tool for Washington to implement its China-centric economic risk reduction strategy. These measures target dual-use technologies apps, such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum technology. So far, clean technologies have been spared U.S. export controls, but a Trump presidency would likely change that. The Republicans have was clear that they would adopt a more hawkish position on China and seek to apply export controls to a wider range sectors than the Biden administration, likely including clean technologies, such as renewable energy and battery technology.
Seen from China, American control of exports of green products would be excellent news. In the short and medium term, such measures would have little impact on Chinese companies, since they are already world leaders in sectors such as solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles.
In the long term, Chinese companies could even benefit from such controls. Deprived of the world’s largest markets, American companies would have less revenue and would be forced to significantly reduce their research and development budgets. Aided by generous government subsidies, Chinese companies could double their research efforts, helping them surpass U.S. companies in developing the next generation of clean technology equipment. Additionally, a scenario of US withdrawal from clean technologies would help China influence global standards for future cleantech goods, resulting in an overall victory for Beijing.
At a campaign rally in 2016, Asset boasted, “I love China.” Whether this is true or not, Beijing probably has a better view of a second Trump presidency than one might expect at first glance. In key economic areas, such as trade, sanctions, financial infrastructure, access to critical raw materials and export controls, a Trump 2.0 scenario could well play into China’s long-term interests.
There are, of course, other areas to consider beyond economics. But Trump’s recent statement that he not too enthusiastic defending Taiwan – another crucial issue for China – will also please Beijing. Seen from China, a Trump victory in November could very well look like a tempting opportunity to profit from the chaos, divisions and damage to American prestige it would unleash.
