BBCAmerican voters will go to the polls on November 5 to elect their next president.
The election was initially a rematch of 2020, but was upended in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
The big question now is: will the outcome mean a second term for Donald Trump or the first female president of the United States?
As Election Day approaches, we’ll be following the polls and seeing what effect the campaign has on the race for the White House.
What do the polls say about the winner of the debate?
Just over 67 million viewers tuned in to watch the Harris-Trump debate in Pennsylvania on September 10. But what do the polls tell us about who will win?
A Reuters/Ipsos poll A survey of 1,400 registered voters who had heard about the debate found that 53% said Harris won and 24% said Trump won. It also suggested Harris had a five-point lead over her rival nationally, 47% to 42%, up from 45% to 41% in August.
A YouGov Poll A survey of 1,400 American adults came to similar conclusions: Among those who watched the debate, 55% said Harris won and 25% said Trump won. Despite this, the survey found no change in voting intentions, with Harris holding the same 46%-45% lead as before the debate.
There was no bump for Harris in a Morning Consult Survey of the 3,300 likely voters who gave him a 50% to 45% lead – although Trump was down one point from 46% in their pre-debate poll.
The data we currently have suggests that even if a majority of those watching the debate believed Harris came out on top, her performance would not necessarily translate into more votes, because many Americans have already decided who they will support.
Who is leading the national polls?
In the months leading up to Biden’s decision to drop out of the race, polls consistently showed him trailing former President Trump. While that was speculative at the time, several polls suggested Harris wouldn’t fare much better.
But the race tightened after the campaign began, and she took a slight lead over her rival in the national polling average, which she has maintained ever since. The latest national polling averages for both candidates are shown below, rounded to the nearest whole number.
In the poll tracking chart below, the trend lines show how these averages have changed since Harris entered the race, and the dots show the distribution of individual poll results.
While these national polls are a useful guide to assessing a candidate’s popularity across the country, they are not necessarily an accurate way to predict the outcome of the election.
That’s because the United States uses an Electoral College system, in which each state is awarded a number of votes roughly corresponding to the size of its population. In total, 538 Electoral College votes are at stake, so a candidate needs to get 270 to win.
The United States has 50 states, but since most of them almost always vote for the same party, there are really only a handful where both candidates have a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won or lost, and they are called swing states.
Who is winning in the key states?
Right now, polls are very tight in all seven key states, making it difficult to know who is actually leading the race. There are fewer state polls than national polls, so we have less data to work with, and each poll has a margin of error that means the numbers could be higher or lower.
As things stand, recent polls suggest that less than a percentage point separates the two candidates in several states. This includes Pennsylvania, which is a key state because it has the largest number of electoral votes at stake and therefore makes it easier for the winner to reach the 270 votes needed.
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin were all Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his way to winning the presidency in 2016. Biden recaptured them in 2020, and if Harris can do the same this year, she will be well on her way to winning the election.
In a sign of how the race has changed since Harris became the Democratic nominee, the day Joe Biden dropped out of the race he trailed Trump by nearly five percentage points in those seven key states.
How are these averages created?
The numbers we used in the graphs above are averages created by 538 survey analysis sitewhich is part of the American news network ABC News. To create them, 538 collects data from individual polls conducted nationally and in key states by numerous polling companies.
As part of their quality control, 538 only includes surveys from companies that meet certain criteria, such as being transparent about the number of people surveyed, when the survey was conducted, and how it was conducted (phone calls, text messages, online, etc.).
You can learn more about the 538 methodology here.
Can we trust polls?
Right now, polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a few percentage points of each other, both nationally and in key states — and when the race is this close, it’s very difficult to predict winners.
Polls underestimated support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Pollsters will try to address this in several ways, including making their results reflect the makeup of the voting population.
These adjustments are difficult to make correctly, and pollsters still have to make informed guesses about other factors, such as who will actually show up to vote on Nov. 5.
Written and produced by Mike Hills and Libby Rogers. Design by Joy Roxas.
