MANILA, Philippines – There will be at least 50 elections in 2024 – with more than two billion voters deciding the trajectory of not only their own country but that of the world.
The number of polls in the coming year is “record-breaking”, according to the US-based think tank Center for American Progress, and the stakes are higher than ever.
America faces the possibility of a return to Donald Trump’s presidency, while Taiwan prepares for Chinese interference in its elections. And a twice-defeated key player in the disgraced Suharto era is a favorite for the presidency of Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy.
India, the world’s most populous and largest democracy, appears to be re-electing nationalist Narendra Modi.
Russia’s 2024 elections, meanwhile, will test Vladimir Putin’s grip as the rest of Europe elects lawmakers who will help shape the region’s direction as wars rage in Ukraine and Gaza.
All eyes will be on the vote.
United States: Biden against Trump
The stage is set for a repeat of the 2020 election as incumbent US President Joe Biden seeks re-election, with former President Donald Trump as a possible candidate, in the 2024 elections.
Trump currently leads the Race for the Republican nomination despite numerous federal and criminal charges, including those related to tax fraud and the attempt to overturn 2020 election results which saw him incite a violent assault on the US Capitol.
A Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll of December 2023 found that 61% of Republicans prefer Trump as the party’s nominee, with closest rivals Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at just 11% each.
Biden, the longest serving American president to fill the position, he is widely expected to win the Democratic nomination and anchor his re-election “on his handling of the economy as it has emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic,” according to a Reuters report.
In 2024, voters will have to decide whether they want to return to the anti-immigration policies, rollback of democracy and white nationalism that have marked the country. Trump’s America.
Taiwan: high stakes against China
Across the Pacific there is another race that can either perpetuate or dismantle democratic values. Taiwan is due to vote for a new president on January 13, and whoever is elected will determine how it handles its current frosty relations with China.
The stakes in the upcoming elections are so high that incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen, who recently reached her term limit, recently appeals for the Taiwanese people to remember what happened in Hong Kong. “We don’t want a Hong Kong-style peace, we want a dignified peace,” she told voters on December 3.
In recent years, Hong Kong has faced tighter Chinese control, cracking down on critics and punishing them with punitive measures.
Among the three main presidential candidates, it is incumbent Vice President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party who is seen as the strongest advocate of Taiwan’s independence from China. Taiwan’s elections show that it is a sovereign country and “that’s the fact, that’s the truth,” Lai was quoted as saying by Al Jazeera in August. “We are already a sovereign and independent country,” he also declared. TIME Magazine in November 2023.
Hou Yu-Ih, candidate of the main opposition Kuomintang party and current mayor of New Taipei, has promised better relations with China while criticizing Tsai’s foreign policy as a “total failure”, according to a report from Focus Taiwan. Ko Wen-Je, former Taipei mayor and Taiwan People’s Party presidential candidate, said China should do a new proposal if he wants to restart negotiations.
All eyes will also be on China and its actions as the elections approach. Taiwanese officials have accused China of intervening and influencing voters to choose candidates who seek closer ties with the Chinese government. would have subsidized trips for politicians. This is in addition to the pursuit and intensification of disinformation attacks against Taiwan.
Indonesia: a three-way match for the country’s third largest democracy
Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy, is expected to vote for a new president on February 14, 2024. At least 200 million people – almost half of whom are Generation Z and millennials – will vote in the sixth country’s election since the fall of the year. the Suharto dictatorship in 1998.
Directing pre-election surveys is Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto of the Gerindra party, which had already lost to outgoing President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in the 2014 and 2019 elections. His running mate is Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of his former political rival Jokowi. A constitutional court allowed Gibran, 36, to run for vice president despite a 40-year-old age requirement, with critics seeing it as strengthening Jokowi’s influence.
A retired military officer, Prabowo was dismissed from his post after being accused of human rights violations against student activists during the final years of Suharto, who was his former father-in-law. In a 2014 article, Rappler CEO Maria Ressa wrote that Prabowo was “one of the few Western influences within Suharto’s inner circle and identified as a possible successor”.
The other presidential candidates are former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan and former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo. Anies served as Minister of Culture and Education from 2014 to 2016, while Ganjar served as a two-term lawmaker.
India: Comfortable Modi
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will most likely retain his power as his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to emerge on top in the 2024 elections, despite the emergence of opposition alliances.
Modi, in power since 2014, enjoys great popularity that will likely translate into electoral success by May. As the Times of India reported in early December, Modi had a 76% approval rate.
Modi’s leadership is credited with introducing new reforms in India, including efforts to increase the country’s online infrastructure to improve government services.
Modi’s BJP and its allies, however, have long been accused of inciting violence against Muslims. According to a British think tank Chatham House“The country’s secular credentials have also been called into question as minority rights have been curtailed.” The tension has also translated into online hatred, particularly in the run-up to the 2024 elections, according to a report. report by the Thomson Reuters Foundation.
How will the future play out for democracy and the most populous country in the world?
Russia: still Putin’s game?
Vladimir Putin’s influence and popularity will be tested as he seeks another presidential term in Russia’s upcoming March 2024 elections. He will run as an independent candidate, not under the ruling United Russia (UR) party, which he co-founded, although party officials say he has their own views. full support.
Putin has been in power for more than two decades, serving as prime minister and president since 1998. His likely victory will give him another six-year term.
He has no visible opponent, as the Kremlin has for years carried out a massive crackdown on dissidents and critics. According to a poll by the Russia-based Levada Center, Putin still enjoys a high approval rating, reaching 85% in November 2023.
But Putin’s rivals hope his re-election campaign will be at least affected by current crises, including the war in Ukraine and the decline of the Russian economy.
The camp of imprisoned opponent Alexeï Navalny wants focus on these questions given that “it is impossible to beat Putin in the elections”. The objective of the opposition campaign is therefore to “change the political agenda in Russia”.
European Parliament elections: will the results reflect the rise of right-wing leadership?
Europeans will elect their representatives to the European Parliament (MEPs) in June 2024, a vote seen as crucial as the region faces unprecedented challenges involving, among others, conflict and migrant rights.
For the next elections, 720 MEPs will be elected. Each of the 27 EU member states can have a minimum of six MEPs or a maximum of 96, depending on the “principle of degressive proportionality“, or the size or population of a country.
Once elected, MEPs form political blocs within parliament where they decide on bills that influence not only the life of the region but also its relations with other countries.
The big question that the upcoming elections can answer is whether Parliament will also reflect the rise of right-wing parties and leaders across Europe in recent years.
And if so, what will happen to the EU’s current response to issues such as the war in Ukraine? – Rappler.com
