Democrats are losing ground to black and Hispanic adults

WASHINGTON, DC — The Republican and Democratic parties have distinct strengths among different subgroups of the American population. However, Democrats lost ground among some of their traditionally stronger support groups, while gaining ground among others. This is based on analysis of the partisan preferences of Americans, which includes those who identify as Democrats or Republicans and those who are independent but lean toward one party or the other.

It should be noted in particular,

• The Democratic Party’s wide lead over Republicans in partisan preferences among Black Americans has shrunk by nearly 20 points over the past three years.
• Democrats’ lead among Hispanic adults and adults ages 18 to 29 has shrunk almost as much, leaving Democrats with only a modest advantage among both groups.
• While Democrats were on par with Republicans among men as recently as 2009, and among non-college-educated adults as recently as 2019, they are now in the red with both groups.

Only partially offsetting these trends, the Democratic Party has gained long-term adherents among college-educated Americans—those with college education and those with only a college degree.

These changes in the partisan affiliation of key subgroups provide the demographic context that explains how Democrats went from a significant lead over Republicans between 2012 and 2021 to small deficits in 2022 and 2023. 27% of U.S. adults identify as Democrats and 43% identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning are two new lows in Gallup’s trend.

The Democratic Party generally does not see major declines among other key groups, including women (who maintain a solid Democratic bias), adults 65 and older (who are evenly divided), and white adults (who align on the GOP).

Leaned party ID by subgroup in 2023

The largest advantage among demographic subgroups that either major party had over the other in terms of party preferences in 2023 is Democrats’ 47 percentage point lead among adults non-Hispanic blacks. Two-thirds of black adults (66%) identify as Democrats or lean that way, while 19% identify as Republican or lean that way.

Democrats also have strong advantages in partisan identification among nonreligious adults, college students and big city residents, and they hold a healthy nine-point lead among women.

The Republicans’ greatest strengths are among people who attend religious services every week (ahead of Democrats by 26 points in this group) and people who live in cities or rural areas (+25). The GOP holds double-digit advantages among Protestants, white adults, men, adults without college degrees, Southern residents and semi-regular churchgoers.

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The following sections show long-term trends in Democratic party affiliation benefits among some of the major demographic subgroups.

Democratic advantage lowest among black and Hispanic adults

Although Democrats continue to hold a formidable advantage over Republicans among non-Hispanic black adults in the United States, their current lead of 47 points is the smallest Gallup has recorded in its polling, dating back to 1999. decline is recent, with net Democratic identity for this group falling 19 points from a 66-point advantage in 2020. At that time, 77% of black adults favored Democrats and 11% favored Republicans, so that the 2023 results represent an 11-point decrease in Democratic identity. affiliation since 2020 and an eight-point increase in Republican affiliation.

Likewise, Democrats’ 12-point advantage among Hispanic adults in 2023 represents a new low in trends dating back to 2011, when Gallup began regularly interviewing in Spanish as well as English. Meanwhile, white adults have maintained a 14- to 17-point preference for the Republican Party in most years since 2014. The parties were closer to parity among this large portion of the electorate between 1999 and 2009.

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Demographic trend tables showing full party identification responses for all three racial/ethnic groups from 1999 to 2023, as well as education, age, and gender subgroups, can be found at the end of this article.

Educational groups diverge more than ever according to parties

Between 1999 and 2013, educational groups showed slight differences in their party affiliation. Since then, and particularly since 2017, when Donald Trump became president, these differences have widened considerably. College-educated American adults have shifted in a decidedly Democratic direction (to +29 Democratic), while those without a college education have gone from +14 Democratic in 1999 to +14 Republican in 2023.

As a result of these changes, college-educated adults have become the most Democratic of the four education categories, while those with no college experience are now the least. These two groups now have the largest political divide between the most Democratic and most Republican educational subgroups measured to date.

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Young adults show lowest Democratic support since 2005

After 2005, when Americans’ partisan preferences were quite similar across ages, net Democratic Party affiliation increased sharply among 18- to 29-year-olds, at the same time as it stabilized or declined among older adults. In 2010, young adults were the only age category giving Democrats an advantage, and their Democratic lean remained strong until falling to just eight points in 2023, the lowest since 2005.

Adults ages 30 to 49 became more Democratic between 2013 and 2018, but since then they have become roughly evenly divided again. This is reflected in a net Democratic identification score of -2 in 2023, tied with adults 65 and older at -1. If these numbers hold in 2024, it would be the first presidential election year since 2000 where Democrats did not have a double-digit advantage among 18- to 29-year-olds, and the first presidential election year since 2004 where they were elected. in deficit among 30 to 49 year olds.

Meanwhile, for the fourth year in a row, adults ages 50 to 64 are the least Democratic, leaning 10 points Republican.

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Intraparty gender gap persists, as men show record GOP trends

Gallup has long recorded a sizable difference in the partisan preferences of women and men.

Solid majorities of women have consistently identified as Democrats or lean Democratic since 1999, resulting in net Democratic party scores for this group averaging +13 from trend.

Men, on the other hand, tend to be evenly split or more Republican in their overall party preferences and leanings.

Both gender groups have moved in a less democratic direction in recent years, with women’s net-democrat identification increasing from +17 in 2021 to +9 in 2023 and men’s identification increasing from -8 to a record high of -15. As a result, the gap between the two groups’ partisan preferences has remained stable since 2018.

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Conclusion

Mirroring the national trend, several key subgroups of American adults showed a decline in Democratic support in 2023, which in most cases meant an increase in the group’s Republican identification and leaning combined with a decline in identification and the Democratic tendency. The main subgroup opposing is college-educated adults, who have become one of the most Democratic groups in the United States.

Data shows that the Democratic Party maintains advantages among people of color and young adults, but in 2023 it was in a weaker position among these groups than at any time in the last quarter century. Democrats’ reduced support among black and Hispanic adults should be particularly concerning for the party, given Republicans’ continued strength among white adults, who remain a majority of the electorate.

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