WASHINGTON, Nov 30 (Reuters) – The Democratic Party has no Plan B if President Joe Biden decides, for whatever reason, to interrupt his 2024 re-election campaign, and the sudden need to replace him as door flag would trigger a complicated battle within the party. .
Despite weak polls and questions, including from some Democrats, about his age, Biden has stuck to his plan to run for a second term after eliminating serious Democratic challengers in the primary when he announced in April that he was running again.
Even if more Democratic candidates ran now, the path forward would be unclear because deadlines for running in primary elections in critical states like Nevada, South Carolina and Georgia have already passed.
Biden loyalists, citing his record in office, argue that the party does not need a backup plan to defeat likely Republican nominee Donald Trump, whom Biden defeated in the 2020 election.
Among the possible scenarios if the president, 81, steps down: Democrats could choose another candidate next August at their convention, or even later, in accordance with party rules.
Reuters spoke to several current and former officials who, while making clear they want Biden to succeed, acknowledge that the party could face upheaval if the oldest president in U.S. history meets a health problem or withdrew for other reasons during the race for the White House.
Biden’s running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris, who has her own popularity issues, would not automatically replace him as first candidate if he withdrew; she would benefit from their shared campaign infrastructure if she ran for president in his absence, but other Democrats would likely jump into the race as well.
“There is no plan B. If he didn’t suddenly show up, everyone you know would show up. The vice president doesn’t scare anyone,” a senior Democratic official told Reuters.
If Biden were to drop out while the Democratic primary was underway, other candidates could join the race, depending on state filing requirements.
It normally takes months to set up a presidential campaign and raise the necessary funds, and deadlines to run for office in important states, including California, Illinois and Michigan, are approaching in the coming weeks.
Democratic leaders are united behind the president, despite some apprehension, they say; otherwise, well-known competitors would have already entered the race.
“Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee and he will beat any MAGA extremist that the Republicans put forward,” Biden campaign spokesman Daniel Wessel said, referring to the Biden campaign’s “Make America Great Again” slogan. former President Trump.
Trump, 77, favorite for the Republican nomination, is also concerned about his age and a litany of accusations including mishandling of classified documents and interference in the 2020 election, which he lost to Biden. He denies any wrongdoing.
Several candidates are challenging Trump in the Republican primary race, giving the party built-in alternatives in the unlikely event that Trump drops out.
THE GOOD OF THE COUNTRY?
To the dismay of the White House, Biden’s age has become a defining element of the 2024 campaign.
David Axelrod, a top White House adviser during Barack Obama’s presidency, said Biden must decide whether it makes sense to run again, after November polls showed him trailing in key states against Trump.
(1/2)U.S. President Joe Biden speaks in the Indian Treaty Room of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building of the White House Complex in Washington, U.S., November 27, 2023. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo Acquire license rights
“If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he has to decide is whether it’s wise, whether it’s in his best interest or the best interest of the country?” Axelrod wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.
A physical examination in February, it found Biden in good health and “fit for duty.”
Biden has long believed he is the Democrat most likely to beat Trump, but a Nov. 7 Reuters/Ipsos poll showed his approval rating at 39%, his lowest since April.
The Democratic primary elections begin in February and end in June. They are holding their convention in Chicago in August.
Biden is expected to win his party’s nomination after an easy primary process. He has a sizable lead in polls over his declared Democratic challengers Marianne Williamson, a writer and U.S. representative. Dean Phillips.
If he drops out after the final primary in June 2024, delegates would be free to vote for another candidate in Chicago.
Any departure before the convention would almost certainly result in jockeying among a large group of presidential candidates, including Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, to convince more than 4,000 Democratic delegates to give them the job.
This would herald a return to a time when convention delegates actually chose their candidate, not just rubber-stamped them.
“If he withdraws before the convention, we will have an old-fashioned convention where the delegates can basically make up their minds (who to vote for), regardless of who they were elected to represent,” said elections official Elaine Kamarck . expert, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington and member of the Democratic National Committee.
That could spark an intraparty war, forcing Democrats to compete with Republicans in a battle in which candidates spend time and money fighting each other.
Things get complicated if, for whatever reason, Biden drops out after the convention. Kamarck, the author of the book “Primary Politics,” said the DNC’s 435 members would then meet in a special session to select a candidate.
There is precedent for changing candidates.
In 1972, Senator Thomas Eagleton withdrew as Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern’s vice presidential running mate after revelations about his treatment for depression forced him to withdraw from the race.
The DNC held an emergency meeting to fill the vacancy and chose Sargent Shriver to replace him. McGovern lost the election.
Newsom has been particularly active as a Biden “surrogate” in taking high-profile jabs at Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida. The two men participate in a televised debate Thursday, an unusual decision for someone who is not a declared presidential candidate.
Newsom’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
“A lot of the surrogate activity we’re seeing — like Newsom helping Biden — is partly to remind Democratic voters that they’re there as an option,” the senior Democratic official said.
Reporting by Jeff Mason; Editing by Heather Timmons and Alistair Bell
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