The war and humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza are also undercutting Biden’s support, especially among younger voters deeply alienated by Israel’s campaign.
Arab Americans are intensely angry over Gaza and Biden’s strong stand with Israel. In each of Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia, there are more Arab American voters than Biden’s 2020 margins of victory in those states. Most will not vote for Trump given his raw hostility to Muslims, but Biden is imperiled if they choose not to vote for him. If Biden loses those three states, and Trump keeps all the states he won in 2020, Biden will lose the election.
Donald Trump watches a UFC fight in Nevada on Saturday.Credit: Getty
Despairing Democrats ask: can anyone take Biden’s place on the ticket? No, not unless he steps down voluntarily. Democratic leaders view Biden as a good president with solid achievements. Not one member of his cabinet or any senators or governors have stepped up to take Biden down.
But what if Biden, after securing re-nomination, has a freeze moment, and cannot speak for 15 seconds, or has a life-threatening illness and stands down from his campaign? What happens then?
Loading
The Democratic delegates elected during the primaries – Biden supporters – will gather in Chicago in August. What will they do? Go with Vice President Kamala Harris? Seek Biden’s divination of his successor?
In 2020, Democrats landed on Biden for one overriding reason: he was judged as the one with the best chance to beat Trump. If Biden retires in 2024, Democrats will choose the one they are most confident will beat Trump again. The field is likely to include Harris, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and California Governor Gavin Newsom, among others.
Will Biden or his successor face Trump, given all his legal trials? The first four Republican primaries, in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, will be done by the end of February. If Trump sweeps those contests, the nomination race is over.
In rejecting Nikki Haley, Republicans will lose their best chance of beating Biden. She would attract a swath of independent voters, like the teals do in Australia. Women would be energised to vote for the first female president. Haley is the perfect new vintage: Reagan values with Trumpist notes. She is not scary like Trump. No way would she Nazi talk like Trump about immigrants “poisoning the blood” of America or quote Putin as Trump has on the “rottenness” of America’s political system.
Loading
But it is virtually impossible for Haley to get there. Trump’s base is a movement. “When they indict me, they are indicting you,” he tells them. Trump says that if he is taken out, nothing will stop the radical Democrats and the “deep state” from killing their future. So when Haley attacks Trump, she is attacking his voters. That is why she cannot win against him.
By the Republican convention in July, Trump may be a convicted felon. If so, there will be an avalanche of calls for the party to remove Trump from the ticket. But like the Democratic convention delegates, the Trump troops are loyal to their general: no way they nail Trump’s political crucifixion.
Many across America and in Australia cannot understand how we have Biden and Trump when most voters do not want either of them or that choice. But here we are.
Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.
