Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and his Republican rival Donald Trump are locked in a dead-end race for the presidency of the United States less than a month before the vote, according to a new Wall Street Journal. survey suggests.
According to data released Friday, the vice president and former president are within two percentage points of each other in six of the seven battleground states that will ultimately decide the next president.
In the poll, while Harris led in the states of Arizona, Georgia and MichiganTrump led in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada. All results are within the margin of error, except for Nevada, where Trump trails by 5 percent in the WSJ poll.
The newspaper said it surveyed 600 registered voters per state between September 28 and October 8.
American elections are not won by the popular vote nationally. Instead, candidates compete in individual states to win electoral college votes.
This is akin to a points system, in which each state is worth a number of points proportional to the size of its population. In all but two states – Maine and Nebraska – the winner takes all the Electoral College votes.
Most states are almost certain to swing to one party. For example, a Democratic victory in California and Vermont is often projected as soon as the election closes, while states like Oklahoma and Alabama are Republican strongholds.
Battleground States
That leaves a handful of states with close, competitive elections. These are known as Swing States. In this round, all eyes are on the seven states surveyed by the WSJ.
In 2016, Trump won the presidency despite losing the popular vote because he defeated the Democratic nominee. Hillary Clinton in most battleground states.
According to a Pew research center investigation Published Friday, Harris leads the race nationally by one point — 48 percent to Trump’s 47 percent.
US election poll results have fluctuated in recent months. While Trump enjoyed a solid lead over Joe Biden Earlier this year, in almost every poll, Democrats received a boost after the US president withdrew and was replaced by Harris as the party’s nominee.
According to a September Morning Consult poll, Harris beat Trump 51% to 46%. But the former president appeared to regain some support amid concerns about the economy and unrest at home. the Middle East.
US election polls have also been largely wrong in the past. For example, many polls indicated that Clinton was poised for a comfortable victory when she lost to Trump in 2016.
Yet this year, various polls seem to agree that the United States is headed for a close presidential election next month.
Senate race
Control of the Senate and the House of Representatives will also be at stake on November 5.
A New York Times poll released Friday predicts bad news for Democrats’ hopes of protecting their narrow Senate majority.
Democrats currently control the 100-member House with 51 seats, including four independents who are part of the party.
But the Times investigation finds that Democrats are at risk of losing a potentially decisive seat in a Republican-leaning state.
Republicans were already expected to flip a Senate seat in West Virginia — where conservative Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin is not running for reelection.
But the Times poll shows Democratic Sen. Jon Tester trailing his Republican opponent by eight percentage points in rural Montana, where Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020.
Democrats will also struggle to hold onto their Senate seats in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona and Nevada, but they hope to challenge Republican incumbents in Texas and Florida.
A Republican-controlled Senate could prove to be a major obstacle for Harris if she wins in November.
Beyond its legislative powers, the Senate is responsible for confirming judicial appointments and cabinet members, which would allow Republicans to pressure Harris, if elected, on who she would choose for her leadership team.