The Chinese government has stepped up its efforts to influence US politics in the 2022 elections, a new report released on Monday indicatesand intelligence officials are investigating whether Beijing is preparing to further ramp up these activities during next year’s presidential election.
U.S. intelligence agencies did not observe a foreign leader directing a campaign of interference against the United States in 2022 in the same way Russia did in 2016. But, according to the report, the U.S. government has discovered a group of countries engaged in a sort of influence operation.
And Chinese authorities have tacitly approved operations to influence a handful of U.S. political races in 2022, according to the report, which represents the intelligence agencies’ joint analytical assessment.
Intelligence agencies have already begun preparing for influence efforts during the 2024 presidential election, which officials say will be far more intense than the 2022 election, with China and Russia potentially attempting to conduct major operations.
In an interview this month, Gen. Paul M. Nakasone, head of U.S. Cyber Command and director of the National Security Agency, said 50 people from the two organizations he leads were “working together to generate intelligence.” on the next elections. A major question, he said, is whether China will step up its work or change tactics.
“What will China’s role be in 2024? » said General Nakasone. “How do they get in?” Is this a Russian model? Is this a model they executed in 2022? Is this something we’ve never seen before?
The report reveals that China mainly focuses on a few races. Although it contained few details, U.S. officials repeatedly emphasized how China worked against a congressional candidate in New York due to his support for the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989.
Chinese officials who attempted to influence the vote were operating under the direction of longtime leaders to work against officials perceived to oppose the Chinese government. But the report also says that Chinese leaders have ordered officials to focus their influence operations on Congress, believing that it “is a venue for anti-China activity.”
China’s campaigns were designed to portray the United States as chaotic, ineffective and unrepresentative, the report said. But Chinese leaders have not authorized a “comprehensive” effort, wary of the consequences if revealed.
Nonetheless, according to the report, Chinese interference in 2022 was greater than in the presidential race two years earlier because “they did not expect the current administration to retaliate as harshly as they feared.” in 2020.”
The report’s explanation of this conclusion has not been declassified and remains redacted in the version made public.
Since the 2022 vote, China experimented with artificial intelligence to spread disinformation, General Nakasone said.
The report also finds that Russia sought to denigrate Democrats in the 2022 elections, largely because of their support for Ukraine, which Russian forces invaded in February of that year.
“Moscow has incorporated themes into its propaganda intended to weaken U.S. support for Ukraine,” the report said, “underscoring the extent to which electoral influence operations are a subset of broader influence activities.” .
Senior intelligence officials said Russia was not as active in 2022 because top officials were distracted by the war in Ukraine. But many intelligence officials believe Russia will likely attempt to scale up its operations in 2024, as aid to Ukraine has become an even more controversial political issue.
Furthermore, much of Russia’s ability to influence elections was orchestrated by companies controlled by Eugene V. Prigozhin, including the Internet Research Agency. Mr. Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash in August after his Failed rebellion and march on Moscow.
U.S. officials said they did not know how easily Russian officials could interfere in the election without Mr. Prigozhin and the apparent demise of the Internet Research Agency.
Intelligence agencies have concluded that foreign governments have largely given up trying to directly tamper with votes or hack into election infrastructure. Rather, they believe that influence campaigns are more effective.