Election trends for 2024: possible implications for the US presidential election

AP Photo/Tommy Martino

As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, capping a historic year in which more voters than ever have participated in at least 64 elections around the world, valuable lessons can be learned from the different elections organized around the world. Nations around the world have faced contentious elections marked by rising populism, the rollback of democracy, external state interference (including Russian interference), increased political violence and the deliberate targeting of female candidates. These challenges have been exacerbated by the proliferation of emerging technologies, which continue to reshape the electoral and security landscape globally.

Populist political parties have enjoyed a wave of electoral victories this year. Anti-immigrant far-right parties in Belgium and Austria have gained ground, with the latter winning an unprecedented victory and allowing for a potential integration of extremists into the party. Identity movementlike Martin Sellner. THE from the United Kingdom This summer’s snap elections may have delivered a victory to the left-wing Labor Party, but they obscured unexpected gains made by Britain’s far-right populist Reform Party. Capitalizing on voter disillusionment with economic and migration issues, Reform UK managed to siphon large numbers of votes from the former ruling Conservatives, dividing the right-wing electorate and contributing to Labor’s gains.

Although, perhaps wrongly, seen as a rejection of the far right, the French elections saw the collapse of the political center, giving rise to far-left and far-right parties. The election highlighted a growing trend of growing unity between the far left and the far right around certain issues, notably cost of living crisis and the war in Ukraine, demonstrating the appeal of populism more broadly. These gains have not only been seen at the national level, with European parliamentary elections June saw an increase in support for far-right populist parties. This progress was a boon for the pro-Russian, anti-immigration Patriots for Europe coalition and likely enabled the further integration of their priorities at the EU level. The outcome of the US presidential election could further strengthen and embolden these parties, as they seek a potential ally in the White House and a partner aligned with their positions towards Moscow, multilateral institutions such as NATO and related policies migration and asylum.

Alongside the rise of populism in the West, many countries have also shown worrying signs of democratic backsliding. For example, the Presidential election in Mozambique has been overshadowed by allegations of electoral fraud emanating from the ruling FRELIMO party’s efforts to consolidate its fifty-year hegemony. Widespread post-election violence erupted in response to the disputed results, with a backlash from the ruling party. The recent elections in Venezuela under Nicolas Maduro have been characterized by escalating violence, repression and forced disappearances of individuals perceived as threats to what is now seen as a fully established authoritarian regime. Despite the direct interest of the European Union and the United States in Venezuela’s political situation and the imposition of sanctions in response to the mass exodus of Venezuelans to the United States, there has been no mitigation significant of this slowdown. A new democratic setback as we approach The presidential election in Tunisia, Once the only success story of the Arab Spring, it saw the targeting and imprisonment of political opponents, the erosion of checks and balances and the consolidation of President Kais Saied’s autocratic rule.

In Georgiathe pro-Russian and increasingly authoritarian Georgian Dream party recently won the parliamentary elections, allegedly thanks to electoral fraud and probably with the support of the Kremlin. Many observers have warned of significant democratic backsliding in the country, with the ruling party pledging to ban opposition parties after their victory. Russia has already faced numerous accusations, including from U.S. intelligence, of election interference, disinformation and even what CNN called “non-credible” office bomb threats. voting, which led to their temporary closure yesterday.

The Kremlin, often supported by a de facto alliance between Russia, China and Iran – which some experts call the “Axis of Upheaval” – has increasingly resorted to sophisticated tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs). For influence elections around the world. Building on past interference campaigns, these states have expanded their tactics, targeting the information environment, digital election infrastructure, media, and even voters through monetary incentives. From Georgia to the United States, this hybrid strategy reflects an increasingly sophisticated approach to influencing elections.

In MoldovaFor example, authorities detained approximately 181 foreign citizens at Chisinau International Airport in April with large sums of cash, which the Moldovan government attributed to a Russia-linked scheme to bribe voters and organize demonstrations against the pro-Western government of President Maia Sandu. In TaiwanIn the 2024 presidential election, Chinese interference tactics included fabricated polls and deepfakes showing current President Ching-te Lai praising the pro-Beijing KMT party. On the eve of the European elections, EU officials warned that Moscow was seeking to discredit European governments and destabilize the EU. This interference involved a range of disinformation tactics, from amplifying existing conspiracy theories to using deepfake videos and creating “doppelganger” websites designed to imitate legitimate news sources while publishing false information.

The Axis’ use of upheaval Artificial Intelligence (AI) Election interference further exacerbates the problem, particularly Russia’s use of these emerging technologies. During the 2024 US presidential race, the Kremlin deployed a series of deepfakes and manipulated videos to portray Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in a negative light. In one case, Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center discovered a Russian disinformation operation that produced a video falsely portraying Kamala Harris as involved in a hit-and-run in San Francisco in 2011. The operation hired an actor to impersonate the alleged victim and released the video. story via a fake website for a fictitious San Francisco news outlet called KBSF-TV. Another Russian intelligence operation promoted a video falsely claiming that ballots in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, had been destroyed.

However, misleading AI-generated content seeking to influence the electorate has been disseminated by foreign and domestic actors. In New Hampshire, a sophisticated AI-generated robocall impersonating President Biden’s voice asked voters to “save their vote” for the November election, encouraging them not to participate in the primaries. This project was orchestrated by a consultant to Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips, who ran in the Democratic presidential primary.

Additionally, the intersection of emerging technologies has exacerbated already pervasive political violence against women. In Bangladesh, fake images of female politicians Rumin Farhana and Nipun Roy circulated on social media just before the January 2024 general elections. In Slovakiaformer president Zuzana Caputová declined to run again, officially citing personal reasons, although this decision came amid persistent death threats on the Internet.

These issues have exacerbated myriad pre-existing societal tensions in many countries, fueling political violence. In Mexico2024 marked the most violent election year since 2018 with more than 749 race-related people affected by political violence, including 231 people killed, according to Bloomberg. Following demonstrations protesting the results of Venezuela’s presidential election in late July, at least 22 demonstrators were killed, most of them by pro-government militias, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). In Georgia, after protests erupted over the summer in response to the adoption of a controversial civil society law, the Georgian government violently repressed protesters, fueling attacks on individual activists by civilians. not identified. During the American presidential election, there are many concern about political violence surrounding the election results based on the outcome, with 51 incidents of political violence before the election, including the assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump, according to Reuters. With the January 6 insurrection still fresh in the minds of many Americans, the elections will determine future political climate in the United States and the potential for violence.