America under a second Trump term and China under increasing foreign and domestic pressures may allow Europe to capture a moment in the spotlight. Will they take it, or let the opportunity slip?
Trump has already begun a massive restructuring of the federal government and along the way, appointed a cabinet roster that reads like a Who’s Who of China hawks and NATO skeptics. This points toward an America more interested in settling scores than maintaining alliances. With Washington determined to treat both friends like Canada and rivals like China with equal measures of hostility, the European Union faces what truly is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity: a chance to rise as an independent actor, not just in its defense, but as a mediator between two of the world’s most angry superpowers.
For Brussels, usually more comfortable with five-year plans than five-minute decisions, this moment demands something radical: action. Europe has spent decades perfecting the art of diplomatic hedging, relying on American security guarantees while pursuing profitable trade with China. That comfortable arrangement is over.
However, in this crisis lies opportunity, a chance for Europe to transform from a cautious chorus member into the conductor of a new global concert.
From Strategic Adolescence to Global Leadership
The transatlantic alliance, forged in the crucible of World War II and tempered through the Cold War, has allowed Europe to maintain a peculiar form of strategic adolescence. Protected under America’s nuclear umbrella, in 1995, for example, the EU infamously spent more time debating the shape of bananas than the shape of its defense capabilities.
Trump’s theatrical distain for NATO and enthusiasm for tariffs has made one thing abundantly clear: America’s patience for bankrolling European security while Europeans pursue business as usual with Beijing has expired.
This awakening comes at a critical moment.
As Washington and Beijing bicker and politicians in D.C. work tirelessly to perfect their partisan circus, Europe finds itself in an unexpectedly powerful position. While American diplomacy descends into theatrical standoffs and media spectacle, China finds itself juggling increasingly uncomfortable realities: its supposedly stable northern frontier features North Korea arming Russia, its “no limits” partnership with Moscow shows distinct limitations, and its cherished access to European markets proves increasingly precarious.
Europe’s Real Power: Beyond Military Might
The moral implications of this new reality are up for grabs, but the policy imperative is clear as day: Europe must double down on its defense and its independence. Europe’s true strength has never been in aircraft carriers or the most advanced weaponry, but in its ability to shape global standards and aspirations.
While Washington talks about regulating Big Tech and Beijing simply absorbs it into the state apparatus, Brussels has surprisingly done better than both superpowers. The EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) didn’t just protect European privacy; it became a de facto global standard, proving the EU cannot just enforce and irritate Silicon Valley, but reshape global business practices.
Consider the economics of power: The EU’s combined economy of $19.4 trillion rivals America’s. The euro sits comfortably as the world’s second reserve currency, while European investments flow outward to the tune of $10.7 trillion, attracting $8.1 trillion in return.
The Union’s GDP, approximately $19.4 trillion nominal and over $26.38 trillion in purchasing power, commands one-sixth of the global economy. European multinational corporations like LVMH, raking in $45.6 billion in revenue in the first half of 2024, and BNP Paribas with its $80 billion under management in Asia alone, serve as ambassadors of influence, weaving a web of dependency from Paris to Shanghai.
When Brussels issues its regulatory edicts, both Silicon Valley titans and Beijing’s billionaires comply, not out of any particular fondness for European values, but out of respect for the simple reality of European economic power.
This “regulatory diplomacy” combines with something equally powerful: European cultural magnetism. Anyone who’s had the pleasure of visiting Europe knows to some degree that the continent that gave the world the Renaissance continues to define global sophistication.
From Paris fashion houses to British research institutes and Italian vineyards to Nordic design studios, Europe shapes how the world thinks about the good life. Half the world’s tourists flock to European cities not just for selfies in front of the Eiffel Tower, but to experience and absorb an old way of life that neither American consumerism nor Chinese state capitalism can ever replicate in this lifetime or the next, and that’s not going to change, giving the European Union a certain gravitas not found in other blocs.
A New Model for Global Leadership
For developing economies, an ascendant European Union could offer something increasingly precious: a genuine third way. While Washington and Beijing demand loyalty with varying degrees of subtlety, a unified Brussels could present something more appealing: a true partnership based on logic and common sense.
For example, ASEAN nations could find in the European Union not just a model to study, but a blueprint for maintaining sovereignty while building collective strength. Members of the African Union, rather than being forced to choose between American promises and Chinese infrastructure, could look to EU standards and practices as templates for sustainable, independent development. Latin American nations, caught between Washington’s free market orthodoxy and Beijing’s state capitalism, could find in Europe’s social market economy a more balanced path to prosperity.
If the European Union could overcome its internal divisions and streamline its bureaucratic processes, the “Brussels Effect” wouldn’t just influence global business practices, it would offer emerging powers a way to develop and prosper without becoming pawns in someone else’s game.
A united Europe could become something truly remarkable: not just a regulatory superpower, but a fine counterweight to great power politics, showing how regional cooperation can triumph over dominance and coercion.
The Choice Ahead: Renaissance or Retreat
For this influence to work, Europe must first overcome its greatest weakness: itself. The EU’s habit of turning every crisis into a committee meeting won’t serve it well in a world where decisions are made at the speed of tweets. A Europe that speaks with one voice on defense, trade, and technology isn’t just possible, it’s necessary for survival in a world where the alternatives are becoming increasingly unpalatable.
For the European Union, this is not merely an opportunity to enhance its security or expand its influence; it is a chance to redefine global leadership for the twenty-first century. As Washington retreats into Trump-induced isolationism or targets Greenland and Beijing grapples with its limitations, Europe can emerge as the essential mediator, offering something increasingly rare in global politics: sophistication.
The pursuit of strategic autonomy, while ambitious, is no longer just desirable, it’s existential.
As the next four years unfold, Europe’s response will determine whether it seizes this moment or allows it to slip away, resigning itself once again to the role of supporting actor in someone else’s drama. Just as Europe once emerged from the Middle Ages into the Renaissance, from dogma into enlightenment, it stands again at a threshold of transformation.
This is not the time for bureaucratic hesitation or fruitless committee meetings. The foundations for a new European renaissance are here. The only question is whether Europe still remembers how to build cathedrals that touch the sky.
Symington Smith is a trustee of the New York Military Academy and a member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations.
Image Credit: Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock.com.
