While the war in Ukraine has had a significant impact on the EU economy, causing a severe energy crisis and rising inflation, it has also led to a push towards greater strategic autonomy. Yet, as the EU continues its economic, military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, this support and the prospect of future enlargement could be challenged by the rise of right-wing populist parties in the European Parliament after the June 2024 elections. The chances that these parties will be able to form effective coalitions and change the EU’s approach to Ukraine are limited. Still, the current uncertainties surrounding the US presidential elections and a general weariness with the Ukraine issue should lead to close monitoring of the issue.
So far, a majority of EU citizens are in favour of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. On the other hand, the consensus on military aid and Ukraine’s EU membership is less broad. Moreover, on average, 70% of EU citizens are not in favour of Ukraine being prioritised over other issues.
Ukraine’s potential EU membership poses financial and political challenges, particularly regarding the EU budget, cohesion policy and agricultural subsidies. At the same time, even though EU accession is a merit-based process, the war will certainly undermine Ukraine’s ability to meet the accession criteria and implement the necessary institutional reforms.
Whatever the outcome of the US presidential elections, the EU must act as a key global actor and ensure that its commitments on enlargement, military and economic support to Ukraine remain strategic priorities. This means addressing public fatigue and managing internal political dynamics to build cohesion around the issue.
