Mahesh Chander Sudan
We, the people of India, are witnessing the ongoing legislative elections in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana, as recently declared by the Election Commission of India. Both JKUT and Haryana have 90 seats in common, but the elections in the youngest Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir are attracting special attention of the nation for being held after an unusual gap of ten years and after the abrogation of the controversial Articles 370 and 35A. However, it may come as a great relief to the people of the Union Territory to give their first term to an elected government of their own and enjoy constitutional status like other citizens of India rather than a limited space of governance for an elected Chief Minister because of the recent amendments adopted under the Transaction of Affairs by the Government of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir Rules 2019. These Rules strengthen the role of the appointed LG and Chief Secretary over the elected representatives of the people, indicating a diluted federal structure giving consolidated control of the Union Government over the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
There are few other notable changes/trends that could affect the lives of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. National and regional political parties are seen sponsoring their candidates in the assembly elections, enriching the political spectrum that provides a wider choice of representatives to the voters. A large number of independent candidates contesting is another cause of concern. About 40% of the candidates have registered as independents and this unusual trend is perhaps due to two reasons: most of the political parties have undersubscribed to the 90 assemblies, either due to alliance compulsion or lack of winnable candidates on the ground. The larger political entities like the BJP have fielded 62 candidates; the NC and the Congress in alliance have sponsored 51 and 32 respectively and have left the remaining seats to other partners. Similarly, other political parties, namely PDP, AIP, AP, AAP, CP, BSP and a few others have been fielding candidates selectively and allowing potential leaders from their cadre to contest on their own as independents. It is also evident that some independent candidates are being sponsored by the major political parties, whether Kashmir-based or at the national level, as proxy or dummy candidates, just to create an electoral fog and mislead the voters. It may be financially difficult for local political formations to field a large inventory of candidates in the given circumstances, except for the BJP which has not entered into a pre-poll alliance with any other political party in the contest nor subscribed for a total of 90 assemblies.
This clearly indicates that all the competing political parties have understood that the mandate of a clear majority in the present circumstances cannot be achieved and the fractured mandate would force them to forge alliances for government formation. This is perhaps another situation that justifies the creation of a pool of kingmakers in the form of independents by bigger players in politics. The innocent people of Jammu and Kashmir, unaware of all these political trends that have evolved over time, will, as expected, entrust their mandate to their leaders in a free and fair environment and allow these elected representatives to manage public resources for the overall welfare of the state. In a democratic system, it is constitutionally established that citizens participate in participatory governance of resources through their elected representatives, but party politics sometimes acts as a hindrance in achieving this solemn objective. In seeking mandate, political party leaders influence voters through their partisan ideology and try to draw their attention to specific partisan alignments with reference to the general welfare of the public. However, in constrained situations where post-election alliance is the only available option for government formation, the alliance partners must evolve a Common Minimum Programme (CMP) to be followed for governing in accordance with the Constitution of India.
In the given scenario, the participating political entities, both national and regional, have little chance of securing a majority mandate due to demographic variations across the Union Territory and have no option but to form alliances before or after the polls. It is also becoming a fact that both the regions are dependent on each other for government formation, more so after 2019 when the territorial reorganisation of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir was carried out to make the Ladakh region an independent Union Territory. As far as the BJP is concerned, the party has not entered into any pre-poll alliance with any other participating political entities and may seek a post-poll alliance depending on the situation that emerges after the results are declared. However, the Indian National Congress and the National Conference have already worked out a pre-poll alliance and are also open to any other partner, if required, for a post-poll alliance as well. These factors arising from the changing political trends and the ground reality encountered in the first phase of elections on 18th September 2024 place a serious responsibility on the voters to use their mandate optimally and not allow a situation like that of 2014 to arise, where the power forced the BJP to forge an alliance with its traditionally ideological adversary, the PDP, and brought the erstwhile state to the current political holocaust/turmoil for almost a decade.
It is also observed that none of the contesting political parties have fielded candidates in all the 90 seats, even the largest national party BJP has fielded 43+19 candidates in Jammu and Kashmir regions respectively, indicating the acceptance of the fact in anticipation that the voters of Kashmir region are not ideologically aligned with the party and an alternative route through independent candidates could complement their strategy. Still, a fractured mandate after a decade long political vacuum may be a cause of concern for all conscious citizens who have suffered from a decade of centralized rule with no local access to participate in democratic governance of public resources, which is detrimental to the overall well-being of the state, especially in the third largest democracy in the world.
The author is Wing Commander (retired)
