J.OE BIDEN The job’s approval rating stands at 39 percent, tying him for the lowest of any president at this point in his term in U.S. polling history. In the six states that could prove decisive in November, he lags between one and six percentage points. In the two states where it is closest, Wisconsin and Michigan, Democratic candidates’ margins have underperformed final polls by an average of six points in the last two elections. Even if he wins both, Mr. Biden He would still need one more swing state to obtain the 270 electoral votes necessary for his re-election.
These numbers suggest the race is hardly a “toss-up.” To be sure, the five months before the vote give Mr. Biden time to catch up, and polls may underestimate his true support. But it is also possible that the candidate benefiting from a poll error is Donald Trump.
