In a year of elections around the world, here is one where the outgoing president calls his predecessor a Nazi. The former president accuses his successor of stealing the previous elections. The current establishment is harassing the former president with a series of criminal cases. The opposition accuses the government of using the law as a weapon to prevent the popular former president from participating in the elections and is retaliating by preparing to impeach the president. The highest court has intervened, but whatever its decision, much of a deeply polarized society will view it as illegitimate and politically motivated.
We are not talking about a third world banana republic, but about the United States. The American foreign policy elite sees itself as the champion of democracy. He regularly makes judgments not only on the general political direction of other countries, but also on the micro-trends that exist within those countries. Washington punishes foreign governments for alleged transgressions of democratic norms. But what about American democracy?
It is both tempting and unnecessary for political elites around the world who are the targets of American criticism to denounce its brazen, if unconscious, hypocrisy. The United States is a deeply self-centered and self-referential society. What matters, however, are the results of America’s internal dynamics. After all, no matter how good its democracy, the choices its political system makes affect the entire world.
Certainly, the many structural problems in American democracy are visible in the 21st century, starting with the first election in 2000, when the Supreme Court had to intervene to resolve a dispute over vote counting in Florida. These problems have gotten worse. As primaries – the state-by-state competition to choose the presidential nominee of the two major parties – begin next week in the west-central state of Iowa, the New York Times said American democracy and its constitution are in danger. The Times declared Trump “wholly unfit for office” and decried that he presents America with a “fateful choice” — “between maintaining the United States as a nation devoted to the “blessings of liberty for ourselves and our posterity” and a man who proudly displayed open contempt for the law and the protections and ideals of the Constitution.
The Times’ characteristic stentorian tone does not impress all Americans. Many believe that the Times and the liberal media are part of the problem: the demonization of traditional values and the imposition of woke culture on ordinary people. Many are convinced that the liberal media is out to attack Trump. Regardless, the American media does not pretend to be neutral in political battles. Even so-called fact-checkers tend to be partisan.
The primary process usually takes place until late in the summer. It is truly democratic and often has surprises in store. Unknown candidates often capture the party’s imagination and nomination. Bill Clinton, governor of a small southern state, Arkansas, was a little-known political asset nationally until he won the 1992 primary to win the nomination and the presidency. The increase in Barack Obama, senator for his first term, in 2008 was also quite dramatic: he defeated the formidable Hillary Clinton to win the nomination. Republican side, outsider Donald Trump beat out more established names like Jeb Bush (son and brother of two former presidents) and won the nomination in 2016 and went on to beat Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton.
But this time, the primary process appears to be a mere formality. Trump is well ahead of his Republican rivals. Whether or not he can run for president, he is well positioned to become the Republican nominee.
Incumbent presidents rarely face a serious challenge for the party nomination for a second term; which applies to the president Joe Biden. But many in the Democratic Party are concerned about his age and fitness. Some of them hoped Biden would step aside and let a new generation of leaders take charge. We now have two old white men – Biden (81) and Trump (77) – once again joining the battle to lead a nation known for its youth, vigor and diversity.
Trailing Trump in key battleground states, Biden is taking off his gloves to attack Trump as a threat to American democracy. Trump responded by mocking the president’s stutter and calling it a real threat to democracy. Beware the personal insults, attacks and counterattacks, dirty tricks and money power – the great joys of democratic politics everywhere – that will shape this year’s most important elections . What happens in the United States will certainly not stay in the United States.
Over the next ten months, the world will be consumed by the drama of the US election – debating all the potential consequences of Trump’s return to power. Yet few, including India, have invested in the capabilities needed to make sense of American society, its history, and its politics. There are a few exceptions: America’s rivals Russia and China have institutions dedicated to the in-depth study of the United States. They also tend to interfere in American politics. America’s allies in Europe and Asia also maintain intense engagement with the Washington establishment.
As India’s stakes in its relationship with the United States rise, Delhi, must also invest in the study of American society. There is no better time to start than the upcoming presidential elections. Here are four guidelines for following the US elections.
First, Indians do not have the right to vote in elections, so don’t be tempted to take sides between the candidates. And remember, “American Indians” are Americans.
Second, we must take the United States’ internal arguments with a large pinch of salt. In the paranoid style of American politics, every proposal is taken to the extreme. But the center remains quite strong despite the current polarization of the country.
Third, for all the pessimism over Trump’s return, remember that there is both change and continuity in American politics. If Trump forced Washington to rethink preconceived ideas about China and globalization during his first term, Biden has persisted in this policy. Understanding this balance between continuity and change is the main challenge for outside observers who were completely wrong in their assessment of the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Fourth, the checks and balances in the American system are strong and will prevent Trump from throwing the Constitution overboard. America is too diverse and differentiated to allow a single person to impose a radical political agenda on it. In this sense, American democracy is very resilient. It has many problems, but reports of a dangerous crisis are a bit exaggerated.
The writer is international affairs editor for The Indian Express
