Political trends in Germany are always of great importance during European Parliament elections, as it is the country that elects the largest number of MEPs. Ann-Kathrin Reinl And Stefan Wallaschek write that Eurosceptic parties appear poised to make gains in Germany, which could have significant implications for the balance of power in the European Parliament.
This article is part of a series on the 2024 European elections. The EUROPP blog will also co-host a round table on the elections in LSE June 6.
Given that the 2019 European Parliament elections took place before the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the situation ahead of this year’s elections is considerably different.
In the 2019 European Parliament elections in Germany, more than 60% of voters decided to vote. The CDU/CSU and the SPD experienced notable seat losses, while the Greens and – to some extent the AfD – emerged victorious in the elections. This time around, polls indicate growing support for the Eurosceptic camp in Germany and across the EU, which could significantly change the political landscape of the European Parliament and future EU policy.
The mood of the German public
After the announcement of the meeting of several far-right political actors (including AfD politicians) to plan “a mass deportation of non-Germans“, hundreds of anti-AfD protests with more than 100,000 participants took place across Germany in the first months of 2024.
Additionally, and almost simultaneously, farmers have successfully mobilized against proposed policy reforms affecting the agricultural sector. Their protests have sometimes led to the paralysis of entire cities, reinforcing the dynamic landscape of civic engagement taking place across Germany.
So, against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the political landscape is currently exceptionally hot in Germany. Moreover, the traffic light coalition government is very unpopular and seems lost in internal disputes.
Innovations for the 2024 European Parliament elections
Two major innovations can be identified for Germany and the upcoming European Parliament elections. First, the voting age will be lowered to 16, meaning that around 1.5 million of the 5 million first-time voters will be 16 and 17 year olds who will have the opportunity to vote. Lowering the voting age could have significant implications given that younger voters generally tend to favor liberal, green and left-wing parties. But young people are also the main group of social media users and the AfD is currently trying to target them on its social networks. Tic Tac.
Second, there is the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, launched at the beginning of the year. This newly created party connects the positions of the economic left and the cultural right. This is expected to turn voters away from the left-wing party as well as the AfD, particularly in East Germany.
Questions relevant to the German electorate
Like in 2019migration and asylum are important issues for German voters ahead of the European Parliament elections, prompting political parties to address these concerns. For example, the European People’s Party, whose main candidate is the current President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has made migration and asylum policies a top priority of its campaign – much to the dismay of political forces of the European Parliament who see the Green New Dealinitiated by von der Leyen in 2019, fell from the agenda.
Furthermore, the EU’s defense and security policies have further stimulated political debates. For example, in a recent survey, 59 percent of German citizens indicated that they would support a common army between EU member states (up 6 percent from June 2023). The focus on defense, security and migration policies plays into the hands of right-wing actors, as these parties are generally perceived as the most competent in these policy areas.
This means that left-wing parties must either emphasize to the electorate their core policy issues such as social justice and climate issues – which are, according to one Autumn 2023 Eurobarometer surveymakes them relevant issues for German citizens – or a campaign on security and migration issues also because they may perceive these topics as valence issues. According to the same Eurobarometer survey, most respondents in Germany said their country’s membership in the EU was a good thing. This shows that most German voters support the Union and its values and that the pro-EU camp must exploit this potential.
Losses for the ruling parties, gains for the Eurosceptic parties
THE latest forecast suggest that the conservative CDU/CSU (PPE group) will be the strongest party in the European Parliament elections, with around 30%, followed by the far-right AfD (ID group) with around 18%. Polls predict that the ruling SPD (S&D group; 16%) and the Greens (Green group; 12%) will finish behind these two parties.
The third party in power – the liberal FDP (Renew Group) – is expected to win only 4% of the vote. The radical left party (GUE/NGL group) will also be weakly represented in the next European Parliament, with an expected share of 3% of the votes. In contrast, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance is currently expected to obtain 6% of the vote, which is similar to the AfD’s first election to the European Parliament in 2014.
Implications for the next national elections
From a national perspective, the European Parliament elections will serve as an early indicator for the upcoming regional elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, scheduled for autumn 2024.
It is expected that the AfD will remain a strong presence, if not further strengthen its position, and that the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance will enter these state parliaments. This would not only strengthen the influence of the two parties in the respective state parliaments, but could also – given that the AfD could enter a regional government – affect the composition of the Bundesrat, the second chamber of the German Parliament.
Implications for EU policies
From an EU perspective, it will be crucial to closely monitor the election results in Germany, as it is the country that sends the most MEPs to the European Parliament (96 in total). The rise of the AfD could therefore also encourage a rise in the radical right camp in the European Parliament. Furthermore, on the intergovernmental stage, Germany plays a central role for the future of the EU.
It is therefore worth paying attention to how German democratic parties react to the growing influence of Eurosceptic and anti-democratic forces after the European Parliament elections. Will they move forward on the path of a unified democracy towards a cohesive Europe, or will they align themselves with the Eurosceptic camp, thus rejecting the vision of a stronger transnational community? In turbulent times, such political uncertainty can potentially undermine the strength of the EU – both domestically and on the international stage.
Note: This article gives the views of the authors, and not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Jürgen Nowak / Shutterstock.com
