Sustained military conflicts in different parts of the world. United States sharply divided as national elections approach. Doubts about the resilience of the Chinese economy coming out of the worst of the pandemic.
These are just some of the things we should worry about in this new backdrop, according to an annual report from political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. But it’s not all gloom and doom. Also on the list is an optimistic forecast for one of the world’s most important geopolitical relationships.
Ian Bremmer is Chairman and Founder of Eurasia Group and Gzero Media. He discussed the list of top risks in more detail with “Marketplace Morning Report” host David Brancaccio. The following is an edited transcript of their conversation.
David Brancaccio: We must start with 2024 is an election year in the United States, but I must highlight India, Russia and the European Parliament. But what is your wording here? Do you call the American elections “the United States against itself”?
Ian Bremmer: Yeah. In fact, a war similar to the one we observe between Russia and Ukraine And Israel and Hamas because in the United States they see themselves as primary adversaries and disagree on basic facts. David, most elections around the world this year are actually not destabilizing at all: Russia because we know what the outcome will be; Sri Lanka, we just got it; India, a hugely popular leader, will get five more years; European Union, their Parliament will bring back the same coalition. But in the United States, where these two leaders have something to fight for, it’s a crisis of democracy.
Brancaccio: I was looking this report from Goldman Sachs late last year this shows that sitting US presidents tend to win – unless there is an economic downturn. Statistics does not show economic slowdown. But there is also voters’ perception of the economy.
Bremmer: Well, incumbent candidates don’t usually run against former presidents. This is number 1. Usually the basic information environment is not challenged. It’s number 2. And usually the president is not 81 years old. If (Donald) Trump didn’t run against him, everyone would say (Joe) Biden shouldn’t run, he won’t make it to 86 to finish. a second term. But all that goes out the window when your former sitting president refused to accept a free and fair transfer of power. I mean, my God, the former Secretary of Defense under Trump came out and said that Trump represents a clear danger for the future of democracy. That should be — in a functioning democracy, that would be the main thing you debate. This is not what is currently happening in the United States, which reflects the political crisis that this country is currently going through.
Brancaccio: I desperately needed more doomscrolling, at least the audio version from you. But I see that you seem to be arguing that things could improve in the US-China relationship.
Bremmer: Yes, the most important geopolitical relationship in the world. The Chinese really don’t want another crisis with the United States, because their economy is doing so badly. And with the US dealing with the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine and in the middle of an election campaign – Biden wants to manage the relationship too.
Brancaccio: Now, artificial intelligence. I mean, it’s a list of geopolitical risks. Is this the year AI gets too big for its boots and causes some sort of existential threat?
Bremmer: Not existential. And I’m a big fan of AI and what it can do to help the global economy. But this is certainly a year where the technology driving AI is evolving much faster than the ability to govern it. And that means AI-powered misinformation, especially since it has an impact on the electionsas well as the proliferation of dangerous AI technologies in the hands of actors, both governmental and non-governmental, ready to use them to threaten national security – this becomes a risk in 2024.
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