Happiness may well be reshaping the American political landscape.
Since the 1960s and the election of President John F. Kennedy, young voters have supported Democratic candidates, while older voters have leaned toward Republicans. This dynamic has evolvedand today, in 2024, large numbers of people in both groups are questioning traditional assumptions about their political affiliation.
The shift challenges the old political adage that youthful idealism gives way to conservative pragmatism with age. As pollsters and pundits struggle to explain the phenomenon, an intriguing theory emerges: It could be that descend to happiness.
The Unfortunate Vote for Change
I am a interpersonal communication researcher and the co-founder and co-director of the Florida Atlantic University Mainstreet Political Communication Lab. Our lab studies and analyzes public opinion and political trends on a national scale. With the upcoming elections approaching, I have been particularly studying the potential influence of happiness on voting habits.
Research from around the world indicates that happy people prefer things to stay the same, and they tend to vote for the incumbent president in political electionsLess satisfied voters are more open to anti-system candidates, seeing the government as a source of their discontent.
These results could help explain the decline in support for the Democratic Party among young people.
This group is still faithfully blue. Vice President Kamala Harris has an advantage among voters under 30with 50% in his favor against 34% for former President Donald Trump. American voters aged 18 to 35 mainly prefer Democratic views on issues like abortion And LGBTQ+ Rights. Yet they are more likely to vote Republican than in the past, especially young men.
Young people are no longer carefree
The decline in the level of satisfaction and happiness among young Americans could help explain the evolution of their political preferences.
OUR March 2024 Survey The survey found that 55% of respondents aged 18 to 34 said they were dissatisfied with their lives, compared to 65% of the general population.
These results, as well as other national surveyschallenge the common belief that early adulthood is one of the happiest periods of life.
Happiness has traditionally been viewed as a U-shaped curve, with younger and older voters reporting the highest levels of happiness. Young adults from around the world Older adults reported being carefree and happy, enjoying their new independence and opportunities. Older adults, on the other hand, have finally overcome the stress of balancing work, family and relationships, and are beginning to enjoy their retirement.
Young Americans today are unhappier than previous generations. That’s true around the world, according to the World Happiness Report 2024But the decline is particularly drastic in the United States, where youth suicide rates have increased more than 60% between 2007 and 2021.
Experts attribute the The unhappiness of today’s young Americans is due to a multitude of factorsincluding a childhood interrupted by the pandemic, the dramatic increase in school shootings Young people are also stressed by political polarization, distrust of the media and two wars raging abroad, in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.
Social media exacerbates these anxieties, encouraging young people to compare themselves to others in unhealthy ways and exposing them to a lot of negative news, which can make reality seem worse than it is.
All of these concerns that tarnish voters’ happiness can influence their political preferences. Some disaffected young voters are drawn to candidates who promise economic stability and growth. Other young adults, dissatisfied with the political system, want radical change – any change.
Seniors for Harris
The changing political preferences of unhappy young Americans are particularly telling when compared to those of older Americans, who have become happier in recent years.
Recent survey data suggests that older voters, long a Republican base, are likely to vote blue in 2024. In September 2024, Harris leads among older voters, with between 51% and 55% preferring her to Trump.
These happy seniors seem concerned about the radical changes that could come under another Trump administration, such as end even more abortion rightsThe Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022 erased what was considered a milestone and achievement for this generation.
Older Americans are also focusing on maintaining Social security benefitsa Democratic priority that Trump has wavered on, and keeping drug costs lower. Both programs help keep older Americans happy and healthy. They barely count for younger people.
Polls are notoriously fickle and constantly changing. But age is no longer a very good indicator of party affiliation.
Happiness counts at the ballot box
I’m not saying that happiness drives all voting choices or that it explains the evolution of political preferences in the United States. But I am saying that it should not be ignored.
AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File
My research shows that to understand why people vote the way they do, it’s essential to look at happiness alongside other key factors like economics and personal experiences. By studying the links between happiness and age, life experiences, and social media engagement, researchers can gain clearer insights into how voting behavior is changing among younger and older voters.
The 2024 presidential candidates seem to have sensed it. Harris’ campaign is focused on “joy” and celebrating happiness and communityThe Trump campaign is adopting an angrier tone and a grievance-filled approach.
Ultimately, happiness is about more than just mood. Just like ideology, the literal pursuit of happiness can influence decisions made at the ballot box.
Editor’s note: The graph in this article documenting youth dissatisfaction has been updated to correct a typographical error. Fifty-five percent of respondents under age 35 said they were somewhat dissatisfied with their lives, not satisfied.
