The good news keeps coming for Vice President Harris.
Not only has she made up ground in opinion polls in key states in her presidential campaign, she has also taken a slight lead in three crucial states that would give her just enough electoral votes to win the White House, according to polling averages.
To be clear, these leads are mostly within the margins of error of the surveys, and Democratic pollsters are concerned This polling error may overstate Harris’ strength. Their message is the same as many speakers heard at the Democratic convention last week: The race is tight, don’t get irrational and exuberant.
NPR’s analysis now considers the seven most-watched swing states to be swing states, which puts all of the Sun Belt states that were previously Republican-leaning. NPR’s analysis of this map is based not only on polls, but also on historical trends and conversations with campaigns and party strategists.
On a map based solely on polls, Harris is now at exactly 270, the number needed to win.
For state polls, NPR’s analysis is based on an average of surveys aggregated by Five Thirty-eight And The Hill/DDHQ. If a candidate has a lead of one percentage point or more in the average of the two, then the state is marked as red or blue. If the margin is narrower than 1 point, then it is marked as a pure toss-up.
Harris now has a consistent, if narrow, lead in the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She holds an average lead of about 3 points in Wisconsin and Michigan, but only a 1-point lead in Pennsylvania, where both campaigns are spending the most.
In the Sun Belt, former President Donald Trump holds a nearly 2-point lead in Georgia, and he’s within 1 point in each of the other three states: North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.
That’s about as close as it gets, and it should be of no consolation to either campaign as the debates approach and early voting is just weeks away.
